In the final round of the AFLW home and away season, this is the biggest game by far for the Western Bulldogs. Having unsuccessfully secured the four points in Canberra last weekend, the Daughters of the West come back to the Whitten Oval for the final time this season, where an old foe will be waiting for them. An old foe in the form of the Melbourne Football Club will make the journey to Footscray on Saturday night with something to prove of their own.
It is essentially a preliminary final and the equation for both teams is simple: Win and you're in the 2018 AFLW Grand Final. Lose and you could miss out. For the Bulldogs it requires a bit more than a loss. For them to lose and still make the Grand Final, the Bulldogs would need both Adelaide to lose to Collingwood and GWS to lose to Brisbane as both sides remain half-a-game behind as we enter the final round. Brisbane are a game behind the ladder leaders as well, but with percentage of 41.42 separating both the Dogs and the Lions, they are perhaps the least threatening to overtake the Bulldogs.
The Bulldogs will not want to be in that position regardless. They really should've had a spot in the Grand Final sewn up last weekend against Greater Western Sydney, but they did not have any answers to the midfield dominance of recruit Courtney Gum and the in-form Giants. An 18-point loss isn't the end of the world, as the Dogs' superior percentage still has them on top of the ladder, but the rivals are coming up fast.
Melbourne sit just behind them, also with four wins for the year. They've been a funny team to assess this year. They looked very good against sides that looked like they could challenge, but have yet dropped games to sides below them such as Fremantle and Collingwood. Last weekend in their win against Carlton, they continued to puzzle me. They blitzed the Blues with a six-goal opening quarter and then only kicked another two goals for the remainder of the match.
The gap between their best and their worst is astounding. Their best is great to watch and is capable of being a premiership team. Their two wins against GWS and Adelaide to start the year were percieved as fantastic wins for different reasons. A come-from-behind win against the Giants and a clinical display against the reigning premiers. Their worst is absolutely atrocious. Against Collingwood a few weeks ago, they only managed to kick one goal and conceded nine goals after a two goal-to-nil opening quarter – they lost that match by 32 points. Against Fremantle, they had ten more inside 50 entries than the Dockers, yet because of poor kicking (4.7 to 6.0), they couldn't get the four points.
Saturday night at the Whitten Oval is a must-win game for both sides, and expect a big crowd to turn up to Footscray on Saturday night to will their women's team on for a shot at the ultimate glory.
The Teams
Western Bulldogs
IN: Katie Brennan, Aisling Utri OUT: Kirsten McLeod (Injured), Emma Mackie (Omitted) B: Libby Birch, Bonnie Toogood, Nicole Callinan
HB: Hannah Scott, Aasta O'Connor, Angelica Gogos MID: Tiarna Ernst, Emma Kearney, Kirsty Lamb, Ellie Blackburn HF: Brooke Lochland, Katie Brennan, Monique Conti F: Jenna Bruton, Lauren Spark, Aisling Utri INT: Naomi Ferres, Bailey Hunt, Hayley Wildes, Kim Rennie, Deanna Berry EMG: Emma Mackie, Jess Anderson
Two massive changes for the Bulldogs, with the captain Katie Brennan set to return from an ankle injury. Brennan hasn't been seen since the round three loss to the Adelaide Crows due to damaging ligaments in her ankle late in that game. Since her injury, the Dogs have gone two wins from three games, but her inclusion undoubtedly boosts the forward line. Another big in is the inclusion of Rising Star nominee Aisling Utri, who was a late out in last week's match against the Giants.
Kirsten McLeod, who looked very good in the first half of last week's game with two goals in the opening half, will miss this game after she suffered a hamstring injury, which is a real shame, because she has been showing signs of promise since coming into the team in round four. Emma Mackie is the other name that is forced to make way, named as one of the two emergencies for Saturday night's massive game.
Melbourne
IN: Bianca Jakobsson, Sarah Lampard OUT: Melissa Hickey (Knee), Cat Phillips (Omitted)
B: Anna Teague, Meg Downie, Ashleigh Guest HB: Claudia Whitfort, Harriet Cordner, Bianca Jakobsson MID: Lauren Pearce, Daisy Pearce, Katherine Smith, Elise O'Dea HF: Shelley Scott, Karen Paxman, Tegan Cunningham F: Eden Zanker, Richelle Cranston, Kate Hore INT: Sarah Lampard, Jasmine Grierson, Lily Mithen, Brooke Patterson, Aliesha Newman EMG: Cat Phillips, Emma Humphries
The Demons have also made two changes ahead of Saturday night's clash. As it has been mentioned quite a fair bit this week, Melissa Hickey will not line up for Melbourne this week after it was revealed that she had ruptured her ACL in the third quarter in last week's big win over Carlton. She went under the knife during the week and will miss the entire VFLW season as well. Whether or not she returns for the 2019 AFLW season remains to be season. Cat Phillips will also miss as she has been dropped for the first time since her debut in the AFLW this season.
They do get a valuable piece in the back-line back, with Bianca Jakobsson back in the team after missing last week's game against Carlton with a quadriceps injury. A lot of people have overlooked her influence in the defensive half this season. After playing as a forward for Carlton in 2017, Jakobsson has been a revelation in defence. Her ability to read the play and become an intercept-marking defender has been a real plus in Melbourne's year. Also coming into the side comes Sarah Lampard for her first game of the year. After playing all of 2017 for the Dees, Lampard suffered a serious hamstring injury at the start of the year.
Last Time They Met – Round 3, 2017
Western Bulldogs 4.5.29
def by
Melbourne 6.7.43
8,000 people were in attendance to watch the first regular-season game between the two sides that have been competing in women's exhibition matches since 2013. Under the lights at the Whitten Oval, the Dogs got the fast start with the opening goal of the game, but from there, it was all Melbourne. The Demons kept the Bulldogs goal-less in the second quarter to open up a 14-point lead at half-time. The home side did their best to get back into the contest, but Melbourne had the all the answers in the second half as they recorded a 14-point victory at the end of the evening.
Daisy Pearce (26 disposals), had a ball on a string and along with fellow midfield star Elise O'Dea (19 disposals) and Karen Paxman (27 disposals) formed a deadly trio in the middle of the ground. Melissa Hickey (13 disposals and four tackles) set up the drive from half-back, whilst Alyssa Mifsud was the star up forward with three goals. The Bulldogs' best players were Ellie Blackburn (26 disposals and six tackles), and Emma Kearney (25 disposals), but were very short on help.
Players To Watch
Western Bulldogs
Jenna Bruton
A club best and fairest winner at St. Kilda in the VFLW last year, Jenna Bruton has shown glimpses of what she can be capable of as a player, and the fact that she beat Carlton captain Bri Davey for the award is a testament to how good she can be. She's tough in congestion, knows how to kick a goal and has the pace to be an outside midfielder as well. Bruton is currently averaging 10 disposals a game during the 2018 AFLW season, but one has to wonder that she could break out for a big evening on the park. Keep your eye out for this talented lady.
Kirsty Lamb
After spending 2017 as a half-forward flanker, Kirsty Lamb has spent more time playing in the midfield and playing under the star duo of Ellie Blackburn and Emma Kearney, she's been someone that has flown underneath the radar consistently in 2018. Lamb is averaging around 13.5 disposals per game this season and has been very tough as an inside midfielder, averaging just under five tackles per game.
Melbourne
Richelle Cranston
After a very impressive three-goal game against the Greater Western Sydney Giants in round one, Richelle Cranston has only managed one goal since, but despite struggling to get onto the scoreboard over the past month, she has managed to find more of the footy this year. Averaging only seven disposals in 2017, Cranston is averaging over 10 disposals and three tackles per game and even when she doesn't get the goals, she's still a very dangerous player in the forward half of the ground.
Tegan Cunningham
The former WNBL Basketballer has been a great find for the Dees in 2018, kicking 9.7 for the year and averaging nine disposals, three marks and two tackles per game. Her strong hands and her ability to use her height to great advantage up forward this year have been hallmarks to her game. She has been so dangerous, she sits just two goals behind the leader to the goal-kicking award Brooke Lochland, who has been magnificent all season long. It could be a shootout between these two come Saturday night.
Final Verdict
I'm not discounting anything about Melbourne here, but right now as it stands, all signs are pointing to a Western Bulldogs Grand Final appearance.
The Dogs are 2-0 at the Whitten Oval this year, and having their captain back is huge plus leading in to this game. On the flip-side, losing Mel Hickey is a huge loss as she has often been the one that has usually had the job on shutting her down in past exhibition games. If the Dogs can get a couple of goals off their captain, then they could win big.
The result of this match will come from the battle in the midfield – they have said for years that's where games are won and lost. It couldn't be any truer here. On one side you have Melbourne's big trio of Daisy Pearce, Elise O'Dea and Karen Paxman – All three women capable of giving you twenty-plus disposals and plenty of space to deliver to the forwards. On the other side, you have Emma Kearney, Ellie Blackburn and a good support cast of Kirsty Lamb, Monique Conti, Aisling Utri and others.
The Demons have been too inconsistent this year for my liking, but don't get me wrong, it's not going to be an easy game to win. Melbourne are good opposition when they want, and they also have a Grand Final spot on the line. I think the Bulldogs are better placed, both structurally and skill-wise – they know what they have to do to get the win.
Western Bulldogs By 12 Points.