This weekend on Bulldogs Centre, I am announcing my predictions ahead of the 2018 AFL season, which is to commence on Thursday night, as reigning premiers Richmond take on Carlton.
On Saturday, I announced the teams I thought would finish in the bottom 10. For those that didn't see it, the link is down below for explanations.
Today I announce the top eight - the sides I think have what it takes to make it into September. It wasn't easy to settle on a top eight as sides such as Port Adelaide, St. Kilda and Hawthorn all could've been included as well and some experts do have them in their predictions. So without further ado, I'll present to you the teams from 8th-1st.
8th – Essendon
Whether you love Essendon or you hate them, it's hard ignore the fact that they played some brilliant football at times in 2017. After a dismal 2016 to which most of their stars were wiped out for the year for the whole drugs debacle, John Worsfold has guided the team back to finals, and even though they were demolished by the Swans in the first week, the signs are there that the Bombers are going to be Finals mainstays for a good while. They play and exciting brand of football, full of run and full of taking the game on at all costs.
In the off-season, they went all out to secure three very talented players from other clubs, however, there's still a bit of mystery as to whether or not they can elevate them to top-four status. Jake Stringer can be a match-winner, but disappeared too much over the past couple of years. Likewise Devon Smith, who's very capable, but is either injured or he just doesn't get the ball enough consistently and whilst I love how Adam Saad breaks the lines and takes the game on, He doesn't bust games open enough.
The Bombers have elite key position players on either end of the ground, Michael Hurley showed how valuable he was coming back from suspension with an All-Australian selection last year, whilst Joe Daniher came of age with a 60-plus goal season and his first of perhaps many All-Australian selections. Add to the fact that Daniher has a great support team of Orazio Fantasia, McDonald-Tipungwuti and now Smith and possibly Stringer, the forward line is going to look very potent. Watching young stars like Zach Merrett and 2017 Rising Star winner Andrew McGrath headline the midfield is going to be great to watch as well.
Alex Docherty's Five Important Bombers
5. Jake Stringer
4. Andrew McGrath
3. Zach Merrett
2. Michael Hurley
1. Joe Daniher
7th – Western Bulldogs
Last year was ultimately a disappointing one for the 2016 premiers. Many expected them to continue to flourish and become a top-four side, but instead they missed out on finals altogether – the first time since 2009 any premiership side has done that. But after an off-season of recruitment and maybe some home truths, the Western Bulldogs have looked a lot hungrier for the footy this summer and with a reinvigorated attitude for the contest, they should be back in Finals contention this year.
The versatility of ex-Power big Jackson Trengove and the skill of the former Docker Hayden Crozier will see these two almost become regular features in the red, white and blue this year, and expect players like Tom Liberatore, Luke Dahlhaus, Liam Picken and a variety of other premiership Bulldogs to bounce back after mediocre 2017 seasons. We know Marcus Bontempelli is a star – perhaps even a top-10 player in the eyes of many, but can he elevate himself even further in 2018?
A big issue with the Dogs is their forward line – with Jake Stringer and Stewart Crameri both out of Whitten Oval now, where will the goals come from? Josh Schache is a high-profile recruit from Brisbane and despite his very good endurance, he's going to need some time to fully develop. What's Tom Boyd's role this year? After a stellar Grand Final performance in 2016, Boyd walked away from the game with mental issues, and despite training well this Summer, he hasn't played a second of the JLT pre-season games. If they don't play finals, they will just be outside the eight.
Alex Docherty's Five Important Bulldogs
5. Tom Boyd
4. Jack Macrae
3. Jason Johannisen
2. Easton Wood
1. Marcus Bontempelli
6th – Melbourne
Melbourne were just one game away from making their first appearance to the finals since 2006. However they blew it all against a Collingwood side that on paper, they should've beaten in the final round of the home and away season. In summary, Melbourne's year was so up and down – their best football carved up opposition, but there were moments all throughout the year that suggest they aren't their yet. Think Clayton Oliver threatening vocal supporters and Tomas Bugg knocking someone out – it screams that they aren't a mature enough side.
But, after a Summer of assessing and working out what they have got to do to be a Finals contender, the Demons have never been in a better position to make a tilt for the Finals. Max Gawn comes back fully fit and ready to reclaim the number one ruck mantle, Jake Lever's inclusion is going to make their defence all the more hard to beat and expect the core of their youth – Jack Viney, Christian Petracca, Jayden Hunt, Clayton Oliver, Oscar McDonald and Jesse Hogan to further themselves more this year.
Top four isn't out of the equation, but there is still a few things to be ironed out. Discipline and consistency problems being the two that stand out the most, but it's hard to see Melbourne failing to make the eight this year. Collectively, they will want to finish a lot better than they did in round 23 last year, and I can't see any reason why Simon Goodwin's charges can't do that in 2018.
Alex Docherty's Five Important Demons
5. Christian Petracca
4. Jack Viney
3. Clayton Oliver
2. Max Gawn
1. Jake Lever
5th – Greater Western Sydney
No one is going to question the talent that the Greater Western Sydney Giants have at their disposal. They have names on every line that would make this team a genuine top-four contender. However, there is one flaw with this team, and we've seen it happen the past couple of years now. Is that they stumble during September. The main reason is that this team fails to work together well as a team, and as long as that continues to happen, as long as they continue to play like individuals, they are not going to taste premiership success.
Whilst there are names such as Josh Kelly, Dylan Shiel, Callan Ward, Jeremy Cameron among so many others that are not just household names, but really talented stars, the depth of this side is slowly deteriorating and that becomes a giant problem (No pun intended) when those mentioned above go down with injury. It's going to force younger kids such as Tim Taranto, Harry Perryman, Isaac Cumming, Aiden Bonar and Lachie Tiziani, to get game-time in and that will damage their chances of the top-four greatly.
They will also need to rely on injury-free seasons from veterans Brett Deledio and Ryan Griffen – that's easier said than done, whilst the premature retirement of Shane Mumford leaves a gaping hole in the ruck stocks. Who takes the number one role? Rory Lobb can monster defenders as a key forward, but he looms as the one to take over the number one ruck mantle full-time. They will be in contention for the top-four, there is no doubt about this, but they have to start working more cohesively.
Alex Docherty's Five Important Giants
5. Nick Haynes
4. Toby Greene
3. Dylan Shiel
2. Josh Kelly
1. Jeremy Cameron
4th – Geelong
After two straight Preliminary Final appearances, the Cats are in a very good position as Gary Ablett – arguably the best player to ever don a Geelong uniform, comes home to the Cattery. Despite being injury-prone over the past few seasons, add him to a midfield that includes Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood and Mitch Duncan, then it could either be a very, very lethal on-ball brigade, or one that could struggle to get past the penultimate game.
Expect Dangerfield and Ablett to rotate forward throughout 2018. Dangerfield kicked 45 goals last year and Ablett has been a proven goal-kicker over the years. Along with Daniel Menzel (40 goals last year) and Tom Hawkins (51 goals) leading the forward line and continued development from Brandan Parfitt, James Parsons and Nakia Cockatoo, it shouldn't come as any surprise to see the Cats emerge as a top-four contender this year.
The big question is that whether or not the Cats can cover the retirements of both long-serving Cats Andrew Mackie and Tom Lonergan. Harry Taylor must move back to defence and Lachie Henderson needs a big year. Zach Tuohy had a fantastic first year in the hoops, whilst Tom Stewart was also a good find and played 21 games in his first season last year. If Gary stays healthy, fit and firing, Geelong are a certified top-four side.
Alex Docherty's Five Important Cats
5. Joel Selwood
4. Tom Hawkins
3. Harry Taylor
2. Gary Ablett
1. Patrick Dangerfield
3rd – Richmond
2017 was a hell of a year to be a Tigers supporter, and any thoughts about a premiership hangover similar to what the Bulldogs endured last year were disspelled during the pre-season, as they thrashed all that came before them. Now granted, they were only pre-season games, so by definition it shouldn't matter too much, but the way they moved the ball up the ground and the way they won their games suggests that their not going to suffer the same fate as the Doggies did last year.
Dustin Martin has been the talk of the off-season, after one of the most incredible individual seasons of recent memory. But there is way more to this team than just Dusty. There's more to this team than just Jack Riewoldt, Trent Cotchin or Alex Rance. They're all the most recognisable Tigers that run out onto the park, donning the yellow and black, but they're a lot of other guys that play their roles so good.
Think Toby Nankervis in the ruck. Think Bachar Houli and Brandon Ellis running out of defence, think David Astbury, Nick Vlastuin and Dylan Grimes being stable members of a premiership defence and most importantly, think of guys like Dan Butler, Jacob Townsend, Jason Castagna, Josh Caddy and especially Daniel Rioli wreaking havoc in the forward line with their pressure and ability to harass defenders into turning the ball over – that's what got them the flag last year. I don't think they're going to suffer any hangover anytime soon.
Alex Docherty's Five Important Tigers
5. Toby Nankervis
4. Jack Riewoldt
3. Trent Cotchin
2. Alex Rance
1. Dustin Martin
2nd – Sydney
Out of all the teams, you would've backed the Swans to play Finals footy after starting the year with six straight losses. They did that last year, but they could not get themselves any further than the Semi Final. That's okay, because with another pre-season under the belt of some of the younger Sydney players, the Swans are primed to return to the top-four in 2018. Isaac Heeney and Callum Mills should blossom into stars this season and at 21 and 20 years of age respectively, they should give the trio of Dan Hannebery, Luke Parker and Josh Kennedy a helping hand.
It's not just them that need to stand up. Tom Papley has to advance another step further in his development, he can become a really great forward pocket in time, Aliir Aliir and Lewis Melican are going to be the next generation key defenders and Will Hayward and Oliver Florent looked very promising last year in their first seasons. The ruck slot is going to be a concern though. Their first choice Sam Naismith is down for the year, Kurt Tippett is retired and Callum Sinclair is currently battling injuries – what happens from there?
But let's not forget about the importance Lance Franklin is to this side. He's 31 years of age right now, but he continues to shine and play like he's in his prime. He abandoned Hawthorn at the end of 2013 for more glory as well as the money, but since his defection to the red and white, the Swans have lost two Grand Finals. Their first six games see the Swans play West Coast away, Port Adelaide, GWS, Western Bulldogs away, Adelaide and Geelong away to start 2018. If they can weather this hard start, they'll be a genuine chance.
Alex Docherty's Five Important Swans
5. Heath Grundy
4. Dane Rampe
3. Luke Parker
2. Josh Kennedy
1. Lance Franklin
1st – Adelaide
Yes the Crows got smacked in the Grand Final. Yes the Crows lost themselves Jake Lever and Charlie Cameron – both important members to their best 22 – to trades in the off-season, and yes they will not be without Brodie Smith who is very important distributor of the footy coming out of defence. But the Crows still have enough really good pieces to be a premiership threat. So much so, that I predict them to rebound from such a shocking performance in the 2017 decider.
The forward line can still work well without Cameron. Taylor Walker is going to lead the side and be the presence, Eddie Betts is still a miraculous goal-sneak, Josh Jenkins is still a capable goal-kicker, Tom Lynch is still the man that sets up the goals and Mitch McGovern is another handy option to goal too. The defence is still well-set without Lever. Daniel Talia, Kyle Hartigan are the bigs, Luke Brown, Jake Kelly and Rory Laird are still there, all of them very important setting up the run from defence and there's a kid by the name of Tom Doedee who is widely tipped to be a regular in the 22 this year.
But the big question is can Bryce Gibbs can win them the premiership? Coming across from Carlton, Gibbs still has the talent to be a good piece in any on-ball brigade. With guys such as Rory Sloane, the Crouch brothers, Richard Douglas, Rory Atkins, Sam Gibson and more, there's no reason why the Crows can't seriously challenge again. It is going to be fascinating to see whether or not Sloane stays a Crow or joins a long list of non South-Australians to walk out of the doors of West Lakes.
Alex Docherty's Five Important Crows
5. Eddie Betts
4. Rory Laird
3. Tom Lynch
2. Taylor Walker
1. Rory Sloane