Not even a fortnight ago, did I write this match-up down as an automatic loss for the Western Bulldogs, as they travel up to Adelaide Oval to take on last year's Grand Finalists in the Adelaide Crows. Not only are they the runners-up to the flag last year, but they are currently well positioned for another top-four berth right now, one of two teams leading the logjam of teams at 5-3 after eight rounds. And sitting in the top four.
But things aren't as good as their win-loss record suggests. Not in the sense of a toxic culture of sorts, but the Crows have a multitude of injuries to players in their best 22 and at times already in 2018, their depth has been greatly tested. It will be set to be tested again tonight as they look to take on a Bulldogs team that are also depleted on senior experience.
Sitting at 4-4 right now and only a game and massive percentage away from the eight sounds pretty good from a team that has displayed the youngest side in each of the eight rounds this year. Sure, all four of their wins have come from sides that currently sit below them on the ladder, but the experience of winning close games will benefit the younger and less experienced players in the long term.
The Bulldogs have been a pretty poor team on the road. In the city of Adelaide, the Dogs have only won one game from four matches at the Adelaide Oval, and have lost their past three games in Adelaide to the Crows dating back to 2012 – their last win against the Crows away being round 19, 2010 – nearly 8 years ago, and given that the Crows are missing a host of players including their captain, they couldn't be in a better position to knock them off here tonight.
A win here wouldn't just mean a massive win against quality opposition, but it would also mean that the Western Bulldogs would have more wins than losses for the first time this season and surely, to the surprise of many, they could see themselves within serious striking distance of the top eight with this win. Forget about past wins this year, Adelaide's midfield is as vulnerable as it has been for quite some time, and the Doggies' midfielders, are beginning to pick up some form.
It's in the middle, where the Crows excel, ranked top-four in the league for contested possessions, averaging 153 per game, whereas the visiting Bulldogs are 16th in the AFL in this category, but having three of their best midfielders out of the team – players that thrive on contested footy – will hurt them a lot, and it will be up to Adelaide's lesser-known players to carry the load tonight. Will it be enough to stop the Doggies' three-game winning run? Or can the Sons of the West notch up their fourth consecutive win and their first win at the Adelaide Oval against the Crows?
The Teams
Western Bulldogs IN: Jackson Trengove, Easton Wood, Jordan Roughead OUT: Aaron Naughton (Ankle), Lewis Young, Mitch Honeychurch (Both Omitted) B: Matthew Suckling, Jackson Trengove, Hayden Crozier HB: Bailey Williams, Zaine Cordy, Easton Wood C: Jason Johannisen, Marcus Bontempelli, Lachie Hunter HF: Caleb Daniel, Billy Gowers, Josh Dunkley F: Luke Dahlhaus, Tom Boyd, Bailey Dale FOL: Jordan Roughead, Toby McLean, Jack Macrae INT: Mitch Wallis, Lukas Webb, Ed Richards, Patrick Lipinski EMG: Josh Schache, Mitch Honeychurch, Shane Biggs, Lin Jong The Western Bulldogs have made three changes to their team after defeating Brisbane by 14 points last weekend, bringing in some reinforcement in defence. Captain Easton Wood makes his return from a hamstring injury suffered during the Carlton win a fortnight ago, but one would have to wonder whether or not it is too early to be brought back in. Tall timber Jackson Trengove and Jordan Roughead also return after lengthy stints on the outer. Out of the team comes Aaron Naughton, who will miss a couple of weeks with ligament damage after a badly rolled ankle in the first quarter last week. Mitch Honeychurch and Lewis Young are forced to make way.
Both Roughead and Trengove were last sighted at AFL level in the Bulldogs' round two loss to West Coast. Trengove – who has played many games at the Adelaide Oval – suffered a cracked shoulder blade and missed a few weeks before returning to the VFL. Roughead suffered concussion and hamstring issues before returning to the VFL – The Doggies need him to step up in the ruck after Stefan Martin dominated the hitouts for Brisbane last week. Adelaide IN: Kyle Hartigan, Sam Gibson, Darcy Fogarty, Lachlan Murphy OUT: Taylor Walker (Glute), Matt Crouch (Hamstring), Luke Brown (Adductor), Mitch McGovern (Ankle) B: Jake Kelly, Daniel Talia, Kyle Hartigan HB: Rory Laird, Andy Otten, Paul Seedsman C: David Mackay, Hugh Greenwood, Sam Gibson HF: Rory Atkins, Darcy Fogarty, Tom Lynch F: Lachlan Murphy, Josh Jenkins, Eddie Betts FOL: Sam Jacobs, Bryce Gibbs, Richard Douglas INT: Jordan Gallucci, Myles Poholke, Cameron Ellis-Yolmen, Tom Doedee EMG: Curtly Hampton, Kyle Cheney, Patrick Wilson, Reilly O'Brien Four forced changes to the Adelaide Crows following their agonising Showdown loss to the Port Adelaide Power, which saw them concede a goal in the final 30 seconds of the game to lose by less than a goal. All of these outs are huge blows to the Crows – the most important outs being the injuries to captain Taylor Walker and All-Australian midfielder Matt Crouch. Luke Brown is an integral part of Adelaide's defence and Mitch McGovern's high-flying capabilities are a valuable asset to any side – they will miss these four out on the field tonight.
They do regain defender Kyle Hartigan from injury and like Brown, he is a valuable piece in Adelaide's defensive half. Former North Melbourne midfielder Sam Gibson will make his debut for the Crows tonight after missing the start of the year due to a hamstring injury in the pre-season. 2017 draftees Darcy Fogarty and Lachlan Murphy are both back in the line-up and should provide some presence up forward given the omissions of both Walker and McGovern.
Recent History (Last 10 Meetings)
Round 16, 2017 – Adelaide Oval: Adelaide 16.8.104 def Western Bulldogs 5.15.45
Round 7, 2016 – Etihad Stadium: Western Bulldogs 18.15.123 def Adelaide 17.6.108
Elimination Final, 2015 – MCG: Western Bulldogs 14.18.102 def by Adelaide 16.13.109
Round 4, 2015 – Etihad Stadium: Western Bulldogs 18.17.125 def Adelaide 10.8.68
Round 6, 2014 – Etihad Stadium: Western Bulldogs 12.11.83 def by Adelaide 13.14.92
Round 21, 2013 – Etihad Stadium: Western Bulldogs 20.11.131 def Adelaide 17.12.114
Round 4, 2013 – AAMI Stadium: Adelaide 12.8.80 def Western Bulldogs 4.4.28
Round 2, 2012 – AAMI Stadium: Adelaide 11.16.82 def Western Bulldogs 9.10.64
Round 13, 2011 – Etihad Stadium: Western Bulldogs 14.16.100 def Adelaide 10.10.70 Round 19, 2010 – AAMI Stadium: Adelaide 7.11.53 def by Western Bulldogs 8.13.61 Players To Watch Western Bulldogs
Jack Macrae There is no Bulldog player who is in more hotter form right now than Jack Macrae. A career-best 47 disposals against the Brisbane Lions last week and 40 disposals on the Gold Coast Suns the week before. In 2018, Macrae is averaging career-highs in disposals, clearances, tackles, and inside 50s and is looming as a possible All-Australian contender this year – some even debating whether or not he is a Brownlow contender – that's how good he's going individually at the moment. With a depleted Adelaide midfield, he could be in for another big game tonight. Could Sam Gibson – a known run-with player – match up on him to start?
Zaine Cordy I'll put my hand up and admit that perhaps Zaine Cordy doesn't get enough recognition in the Western Bulldogs' defensive six. His stats in 2018 won't say a great deal – averaging just 13 disposals, 5.3 marks and 2.7 rebound 50s per game, but his past month in defence needs a bit of recognition. I don't get specific one-on-one match-ups, but he has often done very well to thwart multiple forward threats under pressure, particularly when the ball comes down oppositions forward 50 with a bit of regularity. Faces a tough assignment in trying to quell one of either Josh Jenkins or Tom Lynch tonight. Adelaide Josh Jenkins With captain Taylor Walker out of the Crows' team for tonight, Josh Jenkins must step up tonight and send a message that he can stand up in the absence of the Adelaide skipper. Jenkins is currently behind Walker in the Crows' goal-kicking, just two majors behind on 15 goals for the year. His recent form against the Doggies has been very good, kicking four goals last time these two sides met, and kicked eight goals the meeting before. It's going to be very interesting to see what transpires here.
Bryce Gibbs The former Blue has made quite the seamless transition since crossing over from Carlton at the end of last year. Gibbs has averaged 26.7 disposals, 5.7 clearances, 4.8 inside 50s and 4.2 tackles per game across all eight games this year. Has been a solid player all throughout his career, but Adelaide will need him to have a monsterous game in him if the Crows on-ball brigade are to topple the young Bulldogs midfield, because as it stands currently, only him and Richard Douglas stand as Adelaide's only really good midfielders in the team tonight. Final Verdict
At the start of the week, I didn't hesitate to back the Crows in for their sixth win of the year, but the omissions of Walker, Matt Crouch and Mitch McGovern could potentially change the dynamic of this contest. Walker and McGovern are two of Adelaide's top three goal-kickers in 2018 and having them out is huge as Eddie Betts is currently struggling, Charlie Cameron is gone and it can't be left entirely to Jenkins or Tom Lynch to kick a winning score. Matt Crouch is Arguably Adelaide's number one midfielder this year and to have him out also hurts mightily, especially since Rory Sloane and Brad Crouch are also out of the side and all three are incredibly good. However, I still think the Crows will have enough talent to just get over the line against the Bulldogs. They've been pretty bad travellers in recent memory, having lost their two matches interstate so far this season and were 2-5 interstate last year, and whilst their fundamental skills have steadily improved over the past month, they still have a bit of work to do if they are to match the top sides. Last week was just the second time in eight games this year that they registered more goals than points.
If they can cause Adelaide's defenders to turn the ball over running out of defence, then that helps greatly. The young on-ball brigade of Marcus Bontempelli, Lachie Hunter, Jack Macrae and Toby McLean can seriously take a scalp here, but they will need a consistent four-quarter performance, because Bryce Gibbs can win games of football, Richard Douglas can win games of football, and guys such as Hugh Greenwood, Rory Atkins, Cam Ellis-Yolmen and even Darcy Fogarty are capable of destruction too. It's these guys that should see Adelaide through a tough one.
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