Round 11 looks to be a huge mismatch between the Western Bulldogs and the Melbourne Demons. Set to play under the roof of Etihad Stadium on Saturday afternoon, it looks to be an uphill battle as the Demons are one of the in-form sides in the competition at the moment, whilst the Dogs, after winning three games on the trot, have produced two pretty ordinary results over the past fortnight.
In their past two second halves of football, the Sons of the West have only managed to tally up 1.11 in their games against Adelaide and Collingwood. You can throw whichever excuse you like up here, but it's simply not going to cut it at AFL level, and you can mark my words if they cannot turn it around against Melbourne here, then it may get ugly really quickly.
The Demons have been on fire over the past month, having won five games on the trot. Their last three wins however have caused plenty of AFL fans and experts alike to take some notice. A 69-point win over the Gold Coast Suns in Queensland, a 109-point shellacking against Carlton followed by a 91-point belting of last year's Grand Finalists.
Melbourne are on a roll right now and it is going to take something very impressive from the Western Bulldogs to topple them. The Dees are perhaps the most accurate football side in the league right now, where in contrast, the Dogs are one of the worst sides in accuracy. Melbourne have kicked over 60 more goals than the Dogs in their 10 games this season.
Melbourne's history at Etihad Stadium hasn't been the greatest over the years and they haven't beaten the Bulldogs in consecutive games since 2005, which perhaps outlines the Bulldogs' dominance against the Dees since then. Since 2006, Melbourne have only won five of 18 contests against the Dogs. But they will need to bust this rut, if the Dees are to be properly recognised as a top-four contender this year.
The Teams
Western Bulldogs
IN: Dale Morris, Mitch Honeychurch OUT: Zaine Cordy (Concussion), Bailey Dale (Foot) B: Matthew Suckling, Jackson Trengove, Ed Richards HB: Bailey Williams, Dale Morris, Easton Wood C: Jason Johannisen, Lachie Hunter, Patrick Lipinski HF: Caleb Daniel, Josh Schache, Tory Dickson F: Luke Dahlhaus, Marcus Bontempelli, Billy Gowers FOL: Tom Boyd, Toby McLean, Jack Macrae INT: Hayden Crozier, Mitch Honeychurch, Jordan Roughead, Roarke Smith EMG: Lewis Young, Tom Campbell, Lukas Webb, Lin Jong
The Bulldogs have had to make two forced changes to their line-up from last Friday's loss to Collingwood. Zaine Cordy had concussion from last week and did not play out the second half of that match. He has not passed the required fitness tests and will miss this week. Bailey Dale has suffered a stress fracture in his foot and will miss at least the next month and possibly more.
In a bit of good fortunes, the Bulldogs will regain some veteran presence down back with Dale Morris back in the line-up for his first AFL game of the year. Morris suffered a partial ACL tear in the Pre-Season, and will be a welcome presence to what is a very young back-line. Mitch Honeychurch has also been recalled after a small stint in the VFL. However, there has been no sign of a return for Mitch Wallis, who played in the seconds last week and has not even made the emergencies list. Very strange call indeed.
Melbourne
No Changes B: Michael Hibberd, Oscar McDonald, Neville Jetta HB: Angus Brayshaw, Jake Lever, Jordan Lewis C: Bernie Vince, Jack Viney, Nathan Jones HF: James Harmes, Jesse Hogan, Jake Melksham F: Tim Smith, Tom McDonald, Christian Petracca FOL: Max Gawn, Christian Salem, Clayton Oliver INT: Charlie Spargo, Mitch Hannan, Alex Neal-Bullen, Bayley Fritsch EMG: Billy Stretch, Cameron Pedersen, Tomas Bugg, Joel Smith This is a sign that any team is travelling really well. For the second straight week, Melbourne will come into this game with an unchanged team, bringing in the same team that thumped Carlton by triple digits and was close to thumping Adelaide by triple digits also. It's remarkable that names such as Jeff Garlett, Jayden Hunt, Dom Tyson, Cam Pedersen, Billy Stretch and even Tomas Bugg – players that have been in Melbourne's best 22 in the past – are struggling to even get a game at the present time.
Recent History (Last 10 Meetings)
Round 13, 2017 – Etihad Stadium: Western Bulldogs 8.8.56 def by Melbourne 17.11.113
Round 8, 2016 – MCG: Melbourne 12.10.82 def by Western Bulldogs 17.12.114
Round 20, 2015 – Etihad Stadium: Western Bulldogs 24.9.153 def Melbourne 8.7.55
Round 8, 2015 – MCG: Melbourne 15.13.103 def Western Bulldogs 9.10.64
Round 15, 2014 – Etihad Stadium: Western Bulldogs 14.7.91 def Melbourne 13.7.85
Round 8, 2014 – MCG: Melbourne 12.11.83 def by Western Bulldogs 15.9.99
Round 23, 2013 – Etihad Stadium: Western Bulldogs 16.11.107 def Melbourne 13.9.87
Round 14, 2013 – MCG: Melbourne 15.13.103 def Western Bulldogs 15.10.100
Round 4, 2012 – MCG: Melbourne 9.13.67 def by Western Bulldogs 13.10.88
Round 15, 2011 – Etihad Stadium: Western Bulldogs 19.13.127 def Melbourne 8.15.63
Players To Watch
Western Bulldogs Jason Johannisen I could've put the spotlight on Marcus Bontempelli for an unusually quiet game last week, but I'll back him to bounce back this week. Johannisen however struggled all throughout 2018 and he needs to lift big time on Saturday. He's averaged 18.7 disposals, which is the lowest it has been since Luke Beveridge took over as coach. He's also averaging 4.1 marks, 3.2 inside 50s and 1.8 rebound 50s per game which is the lowest since his debut year in 2012. Melbourne were all over him last time these two sides played and had his colours lowered. He would love to redeem himself here.
Josh Schache
I'm very glad that the former Lion held his spot in the line-up this week as I thought his first game in Bulldogs' colours last week was good enough. He didn't get a lot of the ball, but he provided a contest whenever it came his way and when he did get the ball, he showed that he can use it well. He'll be up against what has been a very sturdy Melbourne defence this weekend, so it will be interesting to see what transpires here. Personally I just want him to continue to compete and try to get his hands on the ball as much as possible.
Melbourne
Jesse Hogan
There is no doubt that Jesse Hogan is amongst one of the more in-form forwards of the competition at the present time. So far this year he has kicked 26.11 and is well on track to topple his personal best for goals in a season – that being 44 goals back in 2015 – the year he made his debut. Not only that, but he is averaging career-highs in disposals (20 per game), inside 50s (3.1 per game) and is averaging 6.8 marks per game, which is up on his input last year. History against the Bulldogs has been alright, slotting seven goals in just three games, but is perfectly placed for a big game here.
Nathan Jones
Nathan Jones has been a remarkable story as he has been perhaps the only remaining player in Melbourne's list that has been through all the shockingly bad results through the years. On Saturday, he will play his 250th game, which is a tremendous effort and a true testament to his loyalty to the club. A three-time club best and fairest winner at the Dees, Jones, who is one of two co-captains at Melbourne, is still valued as a key member of their on-ball brigade and will look to make this milestone game a memorable one.
Final Verdict
It's going to take a lot for the Bulldogs to even make this a close game. Melbourne are playing fantastic football at the moment and there is going to be too much fire-power on this list for the Bulldogs to handle. Melbourne are going to win this game and they are going to win it by a considerable margin. Dare I say it, it may even get close to triple figures. Melbourne dominated the Dogs last time they met, and nothing I've seen from either side will suggest that it will get any closer in this contest.
I don't intend it to be a negative connotation of where the Bulldogs are at as a football club. But Melbourne have a lot of really good players in that 22 and some of them are in career-best form. Michael Hibberd was an All-Australian last year and is in strong consideration again this year, Clayton Oliver continues to prove doubters wrong, Tom McDonald has played half the games Hogan has, yet is second to him in goals kicked, whilst Jake Melksham and Alex Neal-Bullen have been revelations up forward. That's just a few examples of how dangerous Melbourne have become.
The Bulldogs have the talent to perhaps go with them for a quarter or two, but overall their 22 is still a very young and inexperienced one in comparison to the Dees and they will be exposed greatly. They are looking to lock down a top-four spot, the Dogs are just fighting to stay with the eight. It will take something extraordinary for this team to topple Melbourne.
Melbourne By 72 Points