Despite an encouraging performance against top-eight aspirants North Melbourne last weekend, the Western Bulldogs are set for another tough night in the office tonight, with the Geelong Cats coming into town. Whilst the Cats sit just inside the eight, they have played some football at times that is definitely worthy of a top-eight spot, and under the roof of Etihad Stadium, they could cause some problems for the under-strength Bulldogs.
Furthermore, given the recent record that Geelong possess over their opponents tonight, this is definitely going to be a really tough assignment for the Bulldogs to not just break the current losing streak that they are on, but to blow apart a losing streak against the Cats that has dated back to 2009. It has been almost nine years since the Doggies last win, and since then, it has been 11 wins on the trot for Geelong.
However, if last week's game against the Roos is any indication of the game ahead, then the Bulldogs might have a sneaky outside chance tonight. The way they attacked the opposition drew shades of their premiership season a couple of years ago. The pressure was relentless, exciting and looked reinvigorating to watch. It was a shame the game was decided by a poor kick inside 50 and horrible defence in transition, which allowed the Roos to pinch the win with 20 seconds to go in the match.
Geelong are coming off the bye, which might sound good in theory, but strangely enough, history has shown this season that teams coming off the bye don't tend to play their best footy – which is a bit of weird theory, so maybe the Dogs could be finally poised to knock the Cats off guard. Before their week off last week, they were last seen making a good fist of things against the reigning premiers in Richmond, before going down by three goals.
It must also be remembered that the last time these two sides met, the Bulldogs actually made a good fight of things against a team that eventually finished inside the top four. So good, that they actually rebounded from a 26-point half-time deficit and turned into a nine-point lead at the final break. Eventually, they went down by less than four goals to a Geelong side that was playing at their home ground of Kardinia Park.
The Western Bulldogs' 2018 season looks just about done and dusted, so essentially, they have nothing to lose against a side that is fighting to stay inside the top eight and more. A lot of talk has gathered about how the addition of favourite son Gary Ablett will make the side complete, well so far, it hasn't really done much as they sit at 8-5. A win will further press claims for another top-four berth, whilst a loss will have them back in the middle of the pack, which is a luxury they cannot afford.
The Teams
Western Bulldogs
IN: Matthew Suckling, Brad Lynch
OUT: Mitch Honeychurch (Omitted), Caleb Daniel (Knee Soreness)
B: Marcus Adams, Jackson Trengove, Matthew Suckling
HB: Dale Morris, Zaine Cordy, Jason Johannisen
C: Hayden Crozier, Marcus Bontempelli, Lachie Hunter
HF: Bailey Williams, Josh Schache, Mitch Wallis
F: Luke Dahlhaus, Aaron Naughton, Billy Gowers
FOL: Tom Boyd, Toby McLean, Josh Dunkley
INT: Ed Richards, Patrick Lipinski, Brad Lynch, Roarke Smith
EMG: Lewis Young, Mitch Honeychurch, Jordan Roughead, Lin Jong
The Western Bulldogs have made two changes ahead of tonight's game, with the club unveiling its fourth debutant this year, with speedy West Australian Brad Lynch the 1007th player to don the red, white and blue in the history of the organisation. Lynch, who has been branded the name 'Ghost' by the guys in the locker room, has been on the Bulldogs' rookie list since the end of 2015 has elite speed and agility and has shown that he has the kicking skills to become a good player across half-back.
The Bulldogs will welcome back Matthew Suckling into the team after missing a few weeks with an achilles complaint. However, they will miss Caleb Daniel this week, after it was revealed tonight that he is suffering a small knee injury, on the back of a sturdy game against North Melbourne. Mitch Honeychurch is the one who has been forced to make way for the pair, joining Lewis Young, Jordan Roughead and Lin Jong as the four emergencies for this match.
Geelong
IN: Harry Taylor, Cameron Guthrie, Quinton Narkle
OUT: Cory Gregson, Zach Guthrie (Both Omitted), Lincoln McCarthy (Hamstring)
B: Jack Henry, Jake Kolodjashnij, Zach Tuohy
HB: Mark Blicavs, Harry Taylor, Tom Stewart
C: Mitch Duncan, Joel Selwood, Jordan Murdoch HF: James Parsons, Patrick Dangerfield, Sam Menegola F: Brandan Parfitt, Tom Hawkins, Lachie Fogarty
FOL: Rhys Stanley, Gary Ablett, Tim Kelly
INT: Jed Bews, Jordan Cunico, Cameron Guthrie, Quinton Narkle EMG: Wylie Buzza, Zach Guthrie, Daniel Menzel, Jackson Thurlow
Three changes to the Geelong side that lost to Richmond back in round 13, with just one of those being forced. Lincoln McCarthy will miss at least the next couple of weeks with a hamstring injury sustained in their game against the Tigers, whilst Cory Gregson and Zach Guthrie have both been omitted. However, there are a couple of ins that will be imperative to the Cats' structures going forward this year.
Harry Taylor is the most important, Having been such a key member of their back six for years now, he will bring some stability in defence, or possibly even push forward. He enjoys playing against the Bulldogs, kicking a bag of five last time they played, but starting at centre-half back, Chris Scott might have a job for him tonight. Cameron Guthrie is also in for the first time since round three, when he injured his ankle really badly against the Eagles in Perth and will provide plenty of run and drive in the middle, whilst Quinton Narkle will be Geelong's sixth debutant this season.
Narkle was the 60th pick in the 2016 AFL Draft and is seen by the club as a real competitor and carries a bit of talent on him as well. Narkle ruptured his ACL last year playing for Geelong in the VFL and only returned in May, but has shown enough in his six games this year to warrant a debut game at the top flight.
Recent History (Last 10 Meetings)
Round 9, 2017 – Kardinia Park: Geelong 16.8.104 def Western Bulldogs 12.9.81
Round 19, 2016 – Kardinia Park: Geelong 16.7.103 def Western Bulldogs 11.12.78
Round 13, 2016 – Etihad Stadium: Western Bulldogs 5.13.43 def by Geelong 16.4.100
Round 16, 2015 – Kardinia Park: Geelong 10.12.72 def Western Bulldogs 9.10.64
Round 16, 2014 – Kardinia Park: Geelong 10.9.69 def Western Bulldogs 7.14.56
Round 5, 2013 – Etihad Stadium: Western Bulldogs 13.8.86 def by Geelong 15.17.107
Round 22, 2012 – Kardinia Park: Geelong 16.11.107 def Western Bulldogs 11.7.73
Round 9, 2012 – Etihad Stadium: Western Bulldogs 11.9.75 def by Geelong 14.11.95
Round 11, 2011 – Kardinia Park: Geelong 23.10.148 def Western Bulldogs 13.9.87
Round 20, 2010 – Etihad Stadium: Western Bulldogs 9.6.60 def by Geelong 25.11.161
Players To Watch
Western Bulldogs
Aaron Naughton
Coming back into the side last week against the Kangaroos, it was a bit of a surprise to see young Aaron Naughton play up forward for the majority of the contest rather than the usual spot in defence. Overall, I thought it was a success. He kicked his first goal in AFL footy and added another one on top of it, took a couple of good grabs and enabled guys like Billy Gowers and Josh Schache to roam up the ground and get some possessions. Will be one to keep an eye out on tonight as the Dogs take on a formidable defence.
Josh Dunkley
Another one that came back into the side last week, we saw a different role assigned to Josh Dunkley last week, which I thought worked well... for a half at least. He kept the dangerous Shaun Higgins to just 10 first-half possessions before he turned the game on its head in the second half. He could be faced with a tough match-up of taking one of Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood, Gary Ablett, Mitch Duncan or even Sam Menegola. He could get any one of those five players, or he may not get another tagging role. It'll be interesting to see what happens here.
Geelong
Patrick Dangerfield
Aside from West Coast's Josh Kennedy, I don't think there has been anyone who enjoys destroying the Bulldogs more than Patrick Dangerfield. Since joining the Cats, he has played three games against the Bulldogs, and all three games have resulted in the maximum Brownlow Votes in each game. Last year he had 36 disposals, four goals, 12 tackles and 10 clearances in a mammoth effort. His stats in 2018 are a little down in comparison to previous years, but I think it's clear that he'll be in for another big game. He was a little quiet against the Tigers and it's not often that you see him have two quiet ones in a row.
Tim Kelly If I've said it once about this guy, I've probably said it about a dozen times now. I don't think any recruit has flown under the radar quite like mature-aged recruit Tim Kelly. Plucked from South Fremantle in the WAFL at the end of last year, Kelly has made quite the impact in a midfield consisting of Ablett, Dangerfield and Selwood – which are three massive names in this century. His averages consist of 21 disposals, 2.9 marks, 4.3 clearances, 3.8 tackles and 3.8 inside 50s per game. There is also a bit of uncertainty about his future as well, which makes every game now all the more important.
Final Verdict
As encouraging as the Bulldogs were last weekend against North – and they really were – I cannot see them getting over the line against the Cats here. There's a lot of star power on that Geelong list, and there has been for quite some time, which is why they've had the wood on the Dogs for so damn long. I expect one of Ablett or Dangerfield to have a field day in the midfield – probably the latter. Nobody has dared to go near him in any of the last three games.
There are a couple of small stats I've picked up which I found intriguing though, and I hope they take this into their game tonight. The Cats are the best defence in the league, conceding an average of 67.9 points per game. However, the Bulldogs are the fourth-best side at marks inside 50, averaging 12.1 per game. They must look at the likes of Billy Gowers – who had his best game last week – as well as Naughton as the go-to guys up forward.
It's also very important that the Bulldogs win the contest in the middle. Geelong have been worst team and winning centre clearances this season, averaging just over 10 per game. The Dogs aren't much better, averaging 11.8, but they must have guys like Marcus Bontempelli and Luke Dahlhaus to step up in the midfield after pretty ordinary performances last week.
Geelong By 35 Points