The match that is scheduled under the roof of Etihad Stadium on Saturday night between St. Kilda and the Western Bulldogs will have no impact on who makes the top eight, but it could decide where these two sides sit in the order come the 2018 AFL Draft. Leading into round 20, the Bulldogs sit in 14th spot on the ladder, just one spot ahead of the Saints in 15th, with just two premiership points separating the two sides.
One could possibly tout this match as the battle of the two teams who have had the biggest falls from grace over the past 24 months. In 2016, St. Kilda made great progress in their development under Alan Richardson, finishing the year in ninth position, just percentage behind the eighth-placed North Melbourne. The Western Bulldogs – as we all know now – won the premiership from seventh place that year, something never done before.
Fast-forward to today and both sides languish in the bottom five after considerably disappointing 2017 seasons. The Western Bulldogs have endured a horrid run with injuries and have suffered due to lack of depth and form to more senior players – an absolute polar opposite compared to 2016. The Saints have had to take a couple of steps back due to retirements of Leigh Montagna and Nick Riewoldt at the end of 2017 and as a result, the Saints are a little bit more green as a unit.
Last time these two sides met, it was the Bulldogs who proved too good for the Saints, winning by 40 points, but since then, so much has changed. Jake Stringer tormented them for five goals and best-on-ground honours and he's not even there anymore. The Bulldogs have also been very poor over the past couple of months, winning just one match from 10 meetings – the past four have been by an average margin of 53 points.
Whilst faltering second-halves have been the Achilles' heel of the Bulldogs this season, the Saints have often been plagued with inaccuracy, ranked the 17th in the competition ahead of only the Gold Coast Suns. Saturday night's encounter is going to be a very interesting battle to say the least.
The Teams
Western Bulldogs
IN: Tory Dickson, Roarke Smith, Lin Jong OUT: Marcus Adams (Shoulder), Fletcher Roberts, Mitch Honeychurch (Both Omitted)
B: Dale Morris, Aaron Naughton, Roarke Smith HB: Hayden Crozier, Zaine Cordy, Jason Johannisen C: Lachie Hunter, Jack Macrae, Brad Lynch HF: Ed Richards, Josh Schache, Toby McLean F: Tory Dickson, Marcus Bontempelli, Jordan Roughead FOL: Jackson Trengove, Josh Dunkley, Mitch Wallis INT: Fergus Greene, Patrick Lipinski, Caleb Daniel, Lin Jong
EMG: Lewis Young, Mitch Honeychurch, Callum Porter, Tim English
The Western Bulldogs have made three changes from the side that lost out to Port Adelaide last week in Ballarat. They will welcome back sharpshooter Tory Dickson for the first time since round 11. He has only played five games this year after successive hamstring injuries. Lin Jong also comes back into the team for his first game since the round 15 win over Geelong where it looked as if he broke his collarbone. Roarke Smith will also come into the side after he missed last week's game due to a car accident that also involved team mate Kieran Collins.
However in a bit of a blow, the club will lose Marcus Adams this week with a minor shoulder injury, whilst Mitch Honeychurch and Fletcher Roberts – after just one game – have been axed from the side.
St. Kilda
IN: Nathan Freeman, Hunter Clark, David Armitage, Jimmy Webster OUT: Shane Savage (Hamstring), Maverick Weller (Sore), Sam Gilbert, Rowan Marshall (Both Omitted)
B: Jarryn Geary, Jake Carlisle, Nick Coffield HB: Daniel McKenzie, Nathan Brown, Jimmy Webster C: Nathan Freeman, Jack Steele, Jack Sinclair HF: Blake Acres, Tim Membrey, Jack Billings F: Jade Gresham, Josh Battle, Jack Newnes FOL: Tom Hickey, Jack Steven, Seb Ross INT: Luke Dunstan, Hunter Clark, Jack Lonie, David Armitage EMG: Sam Gilbert, Hugh Goddard, Rowan Marshall, Ben Paton
Four changes have been made to the St. Kilda line-up, headlined by the long-awaited debut of Nathan Freeman. After over 1700 days as an AFL player, Freeman will finally play his first game at the top flight. Taken by Collingwood with the 10th pick in the 2013 AFL Draft, Freeman has had a horrid run of injuries – both with the Pies and when he joined St. Kilda at the end of 2015. After a 37-disposal game for Sandringham on the weekend and good form leading up to that game, the Saints finally believe that he is ready to go, set to become the 1596th player to represent the red, white and black.
Also coming into the side include Jimmy Webster, who has been one of St. Kilda's best players this year, averaging a career-best 22.6 disposals and 5.4 rebound 50s per game, along with one of two first-round draft picks from last year Hunter Clark and veteran midfielder David Armitage, who had hit some pretty good form for the Saints leading up to last week. They will miss running defender Shane Savage with a hamstring strain and Mav Weller due to general soreness, whilst they have dropped veteran Sam Gilbert and big-man Rowan Marshall.
Recent History (Past 10 Matches)
Round 10, 2017 – Etihad Stadium: Western Bulldogs 13.12.90 def St. Kilda 7.8.50
Round 18, 2016 – Etihad Stadium: Western Bulldogs 9.6.60 def by St. Kilda 11.9.75
Round 2, 2016 – Etihad Stadium: St. Kilda 5.6.36 def by Western Bulldogs 13.15.93
Round 13, 2015 – Etihad Stadium: St. Kilda 7.14.56 def by Western Bulldogs 9.8.62
Round 6, 2015 – Etihad Stadium: Western Bulldogs 13.9.87 def by St. Kilda 14.10.94
Round 20, 2014 – Etihad Stadium: St Kilda 15.9.99 def by Western Bulldogs 18.14.122
Round 9, 2013 – Etihad Stadium: St. Kilda 15.11.101 def by Western Bulldogs 17.8.110
Round 18, 2012 – Etihad Stadium: St. Kilda 16.22.118 def Western Bulldogs 6.6.42
Round 3, 2012 – Etihad Stadium: Western Bulldogs 5.10.40 def by St. Kilda 15.13.103
Round 12, 2011 – Etihad Stadium: St. Kilda 12.9.81 def Western Bulldogs 8.9.57
Players To Watch
Western Bulldogs
Mitch Wallis We're still yet to hear of anything in regards to Mitch Wallis' future at the Whitten Oval – which is personally starting to scare me. Out of contract and in some pretty good form over the last month has been one of a few positives for the Bulldogs. In his last four games, he has kicked eight goals and has averaged 21.5 disposals, 4.2 clearances and 2.7 tackles per game playing more forward than midfield. He has the interesting distinction of kicking the opening goal of the game in each of the last three games. Could be in for a big game this week – the Dogs will need him
Jason Johannisen
Last week was not Jason Johannisen's finest hour, recording just nine disposals in horrid conditions up at Ballarat. The last time he recorded disposals under double figures was the infamous game against Sydney last year when the Swans targeted him and tagged him out of the game completely. Like Wallis, the Dogs desperately need his run and carry if they are to win this weekend. He's enjoyed playing the Saints in the past, averaging 25 disposals, 5.6 marks, 3.6 rebound 50s and 3.5 inside 50s per game.
St. Kilda
Jade Gresham
Since his debut in 2016, Jade Gresham is slowly emerging as one of the young stars of the competition. In 2017, Gresham kicked 30.30 in 22 games and this year and not only has he eclipsed that this year in less games, he is poised for a 40-goal season and his accuracy has improved tenfold in a side that has struggled badly in finishing in front of the big sticks. Without doubt he is the most dangerous threat for the Bulldogs come Saturday and they will have to figure out how his influence on the contest can be limited.
Jack Billings
Perhaps one of the most puzzling players in the competition today is Jack Billings. The Saints took him with the third pick in the draft and whilst he has had his moments throughout his 81-game career, he hasn't been able to string games consistently, whilst goal-kicking over the past few years has been a big issue in his game. He kicked 23.36 last year and has kicked 9.15 this year playing more midfield. Could he be a key to St. Kilda's fifth victory of the year?
Final Verdict
As much as I want the Bulldogs to get the win here, the Saints are favourites with the bookies for a reason – and that has more to do with the Bulldogs' inability to string a consistent four-quarter effort than anything that has to do with how the Saints play their footy. If the Saints are inaccurate enough, it'll keep the Dogs in with a sniff, but I think the Saints will have enough to put them away in a close one.
Whether the Bulldogs fall away in the third or the fourth quarter is perhaps anyone's guess, but the stats will say they are the worst second-half team this year. The points differential in third quarters is -237 and in final quarters they are -199. The Bulldogs have won five of their last seven encounters against the Saints dating back to 2013, but the Saints are in the box seat for this victory.
This is going to be a game about which side can maintain their intensity for longer. It's evident that the Bulldogs can crank the heat on their opposition for at least a half, but they're going to need to do it for longer if they're to beat sides beyond this year.
St. Kilda By Nine Points