The 2018 AFL Grand Final is upon us after another stirring year. Who would've thought at the beginning of the year that Collingwood and the West Coast Eagles would be the last two teams standing? I certainly wasn't expecting it, and to be quite frank, I don't think many others expected it either.
I wrote an article last weekend about Collingwood and how they're the feel good story this year. They finished last year in 13th place and a number of questions were asked about Collingwood's decision to keep on board Nathan Buckley after he had taken them down the ladder season after season since he took over from Mick Malthouse at the end of 2011.
After losses to Hawthorn and GWS to start the year, more pressure than ever was placed on Buckley to turn the side around after a bad opening fortnight. Full credit to the players and all those involved with the football club, Buckley has turned it around big time and with the list he's got at the moment, pose a massive chance to take out this year's premiership. Last week's win against Richmond was as clinical and as sharp I've seen from the Collingwood team in years.
However, the Eagles have a story themselves. 12 months after finishing eighth in the home and away season and farewelled two ball-magnets in Sam Mitchell and Matt Priddis, many didn't give West Coast a chance heading into 2018. After a first-round loss to the Sydney Swans at the new home ground of Optus Stadium, Adam Simpson's men went on a 10-game winning run, which included defeating Richmond, Geelong, GWS and Hawthorn.
There are a number of reasons of why the Eagles have risen from 'also-rans' to legit contenders. It's the improved games of players such as Elliot Yeo, Jack Redden and even their captain Shannon Hurn, who was fittingly rewarded with a spot in the All-Australian team. It's the finds such as Willie Rioli, Liam Ryan and Daniel Venables – all three have been revelations in this team in 2018. It's their resilience in losing important players such as Nic Naitanui, Andrew Gaff and Brad Sheppard, who have had big moments all throughout this year.
These two sides have met each other twice this year, with West Coast winning both encounters. Yet Collingwood enter this game as favourites. West Coast's poor record in Melbourne in recent years have been well documented, however, a win over the Pies at the MCG earlier in the year has proven that the Eagles can win on the road. It was only three years ago that they were on the Grand Final stage, only to be handed a shellacking at the hands of Hawthorn. Of the 22 that played that day, 12 of them will be back at the MCG today.
Can the Eagles right the wrongs of three years ago and win the first flag in 12 years – the fourth in the club's history? Or will the Pies break through for their first premiership in eight years? Whether you support either club or not, this looks like it will be a cracking game of footy.
The Teams
Collingwood
No Change
B: Brayden Maynard, Tom Langdon, Jack Crisp
HB: Jeremy Howe, Tyson Goldsack, Travis Varcoe
C: Adam Treloar, Scott Pendlebury, Tom Phillips
HF: Will Hoskin-Elliott, Brody Mihocek, Jordan De Goey
F: Josh Thomas, Mason Cox, Jaidyn Stephenson
FOL: Brodie Grundy, Taylor Adams, Steele Sidebottom INT: Brayden Sier, James Aish, Chris Mayne, Levi Greenwood
EMG: Jarryd Blair, Ben Reid, Callum Brown, Flynn Appleby
West Coast Eagles
No Change
B: Shannon Hurn, Tom Barrass, Will Schofield
HB: Thomas Cole, Jeremy McGovern, Lewis Jetta
C: Jack Redden, Elliot Yeo, Chris Masten
HF: Mark Hutchings, Jack Darling, Mark LeCras
F: Willie Rioli, Josh Kennedy, Jamie Cripps
FOL: Scott Lycett, Luke Shuey, Dom Sheed
INT: Liam Ryan, Liam Duggan, Daniel Venables, Nathan Vardy
EMG: Oscar Allen, Jackson Nelson, Brayden Ainsworth, Brendon Ah Chee
No changes have been made for either side, but there have been some doubts over a number of players in the lead up to this game. Collingwood's Jeremy Howe looked a bit ginger at times last Friday night after rolling his ankle. West Coast pair Jeremy McGovern (Hip) and Luke Shuey (Ankle) played the game against Melbourne hurt but they did see the game out and they have got through training and have both been named as well.
Recent History (Past 10 Meetings)
Qualifying Final, 2018 – Optus Stadium: West Coast 12.14.86 def Collingwood 10.10.70
Round 17, 2018 – MCG: Collingwood 9.13.67 def by West Coast 15.12.102
Round 18, 2017 – Etihad Stadium: Collingwood 13.15.93 def West Coast 13.7.85
Round 19, 2016 – MCG: Collingwood 13.13.91 def West Coast 11.6.72
Round 6, 2016 – Subiaco: West Coast 18.16.124 def Collingwood 9.8.62
Round 16, 2015 – Etihad Stadium: Collingwood 7.14.56 def by West Coast 11.21.87
Round 20, 2014 – Subiaco: West Coast 19.12.126 def Collingwood 10.6.66
Round 10, 2014 – MCG: Collingwood 17.7.109 def West Coast 15.11.101
Round 22, 2013 – MCG: Collingwood 15.11.101 def West Coast 5.9.39
Semi Final, 2012 – MCG: Collingwood 10.13.73 def West Coast 9.6.60
Match-Ups To Watch
Mason Cox vs Tom Barrass
Last week's performance against Richmond was perhaps one of the best games I've seen from the big American Mason Cox in his short career. He took 11 marks – eight of those contested – and kicked three goals in the second quarter to put the result beyond doubt. The Eagles cannot afford him to get a clear run of the ball, otherwise he will be as destructive as he was last Friday night. Tom Barrass played on him in the Qualifying final and only kept him to four kicks and no score and is set to take him on again.
Mark Hutchings vs Steele Sidebottom
Steele Sidebottom has not been in any hotter form than he is right now. Last week against the Tigers, he had 41 possessions and cut up a lacklustre Richmond outfit with his class and poise with the ball in his hand. West Coast will not allow him to do the same thing today, and I expect Mark Hutchings, who is a renowned tagger in this league, to start the game by tagging him. If the Eagles are to get the job done, Sidebottom's influence needs to be limited.
Josh Kennedy/Jack Darling vs Tyson Goldsack
This is arguably the key to West Coast's premiership. Collingwood's back line is critically undersized due to injuries to their key backs. Tyson Goldsack had the job on Jack Riewoldt last week and he kicked five of Richmond's eight goals. Kennedy and Darling ran amok on a Melbourne defence last Saturday and if the Eagles' on-ballers have their way again today, then whoever plays on Goldsack will have a field day.
Players To Watch
Collingwood – Jordan De Goey
It's been a banner year for Jordan De Goey after a rough 24 months of headlines for all the wrong reasons. De Goey has been a force to be reckoned with up forward, kicking 45.21 in 20 games this year. His Finals campaign has been nothing short of sensational, having kicked nine goals in five games. Last week he towelled up Alex Rance and will be a menace for the West Coast defence today. He's my pick for the Norm Smith Medal – I don't think there is an Eagle defender that can match up on him.
West Coast – Elliot Yeo
Three years ago, Elliot Yeo had just five disposals in the 2015 Grand Final. Today, Yeo has transformed from a utility player to a full-time midfielder. Averaging 24.8 disposals, 6.7 tackles, 5.3 inside 50s and 4.4 clearances in what has been a great year personally, Yeo monstered Collingwood in the Qualifying final, with 36 disposals – 24 contested – along with nine tackles and nine inside 50s. He is the one midfielder that Collingwood must nullify.
Final Verdict
If Collingwood can replicate what they did against Richmond last Friday night, I have no doubt that they will win. But I expect the Eagles to learn from what happened three years ago and come out with something to prove. Many have doubted them from the start of the year and have even continued to doubt as the year has progressed, even with the wins piling up.
The midfield battle is going to be interesting to watch, but I think Scott Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Taylor Adams and Adam Treloar look a bit more in form than Yeo, Jack Redden – who played a blinder last week – Luke Shuey and co. Up forward, the Eagles will need the younger boys to stand up. I think Willie Rioli and Liam Ryan are the ones that have to stand up and help out Darling and Kennedy – who have both kicked over 40 goals this year.
The Eagles must find a way to stop both Mason Cox and Jordan De Goey up forward, but I have the gut feeling one of the two will have a massive day. It's not going to be a one-sided game like the two matches we were subjected to watching last year, but I think the Pies are going to be the premiers this year.
Collingwood by 28 points
Norm Smith Medal Prediction: Jordan De Goey (Collingwood)