The Western Bulldogs hold the seventh pick in Thursday's AFL Draft - which is the second top-10 pick that the Bulldogs have in as many Drafts. After drafting a future star in Aaron Naughton, landing another future star with this pick on Thursday is crucial for the team as they look to head up the ladder once more in 2019.
Pick 7 has seen many good players come through the system over the years. I think of premiership players such as Joel Selwood (2006 Draft), Jordan Lewis (2004), Andrew Mackie (2002), Josh Caddy (2010), Josh Carr (1998) and Chris Johnson (1993) as well as players who have forged solid careers - players such as David Hale (2001), Leon Cameron (1988), Paddy Ryder (2005), Daniel Rich (2008), Ollie Wines (2012) and Brad Sheppard (2009).
However, with six picks ahead of them, they'll be hoping that there is a player that slips out of those first six selections and falls into the Bulldogs' lap. I can only imagine that there would be a number of players that could fall from picks 5-15 that are on the radar of the club.
Who the Bulldogs pick up is going to vary on a couple of clubs. You can just about lock in Carlton selecting midfield gun Sam Walsh with the first pick of the draft - he's someone that fits their needs and even if he doesn't go with the first pick, he won't go past the second pick - which is where things begin to pick up.
As it stands right now, the Gold Coast Suns hold the second, third and sixth picks in the Draft and will ultimately decide who the Bulldogs pick up. There have been talks that the Gold Coast could trade the sixth pick, along with pick 24 in order to get St. Kilda's fourth pick. For the sake of this article, let's just say THIS HAPPENS and the Suns have picks two, three and four in the AFL Draft.
Player retention up in the Queensland clubs has long been an issue in the AFL, It happened with Brisbane over the past five to seven years and Gold Coast are also suffering with a number of players wanting to leave and go home. Brisbane have not had as many players leave in the past couple of years, but the situation in Gold Coast is beyond dire - culminating in both co-captains leaving the club this off-season.
A couple of years ago, Brisbane had four picks inside the top 25 and they selected three players from North Ballarat and another Victorian player in an attempt to keep the players together. This is something that the Gold Coast Suns must do with their three picks on Thursday. There are two sets of players that they could land and I today I will be writing about what it could mean for both the Western Bulldogs and the Draft.
Before we proceed, I must point out that any academy players will not be accounted for, Sam Walsh will be going at number one in both scenarios and I must acknowledge Port Adelaide, who do have the fifth pick in the draft have a role to play here as well.
Scenario 1 - The South Australian Trio
Right now, the favourites to go to the Suns include South Australian Pair Jack Lukosius and Izak Rankine. Lukosious is a 194cm forward who has a terrific aerobic capacity and for someone his size, has got an elite kick on him. Some say he is arguably the best talent in this year's draft class - but he's not someone that Carlton needs. I expect the Suns to take him with the second pick.
From here, they must keep a South Australian theme here, and the next best player in terms of talent and potential is Izak Rankine, who just screams out excitement and has the potential to turn games on his head quite like few others with his speed, skill, athleticism and ability to read the play. Closing out with the fourth pick, will be a versatile player in Connor Rozee, who is an elite kick and has the athleticism to become a serious aerial threat. His ability to play a number of positions around the ground should also be very enticing for the Suns.
What this means for the rest of the draft is that Port Adelaide will want to pick up a key position player - they are very thin on key backs as they don't have a very tall defender, so they take the best key defender Ben King with the fifth pick as he can also play as a tall forward in case Charlie Dixon goes down with injury.
Then comes St. Kilda's selection which holds a bit of mystery. Do they go with key forward Max King - who has been rehabbing at the club for the most part of this year or do they go with a bit of midfield class and go with Bailey Smith? The Saints would like either player - King gives the Saints a definite big target inside 50 and Smith gives a bit of class that Saints sorely lack. If the Saints go Smith with this pick, I don't expect the Bulldogs to take Max King as they have two key forwards already with Tom Boyd and Josh Schache. What the Dogs need is midfield depth and inside midfielder Jye Caldwell would be a very suitable option with pick seven. Having him would open up guys like Jack Macrae and Marcus Bontempelli - who use the ball well - to play a more outside role. If the Saints go with Max King, then I expect the Dogs to go with Bailey Smith with pick seven - who fits their needs to a T.
Adelaide don't need Max King with pick eight, I'd imagine they'd take South-Australian Jackson Hately, given their recent history of player retention. This would mean GWS would snatch up Max King with the ninth pick in the draft - quite staggering considering that he would've been a huge chance to go number one at the start of the year.
The Provisional Top 10 1. Carlton – Sam Walsh 2. Gold Coast – Jack Lukosius 3. Gold Coast – Izak Rankine 4. Gold Coast – Connor Rozee 5. Port Adelaide – Ben King 6. St. Kilda – Bailey Smith 7. Western Bulldogs – Jye Caldwell 8. Adelaide – Jackson Hately 9. GWS – Max King 10. Port Adelaide – Jordan Clark
Scenario 2 - The Sandringham Dragons Trio
There are a pair of twins who have been largely talked about throughout the 2018 season - I am of course speaking of Max and Ben King. They are not favoured to go to the Gold Coast Suns with picks two and three at the moment, but don't be too surprised if they find their way up North. I think these two would love to play alongside eachother and given that Tom Lynch - who played as a key forward - and Steven May - who played as a key defender - it would make a bit of sense to replace them. With their final pick in the draft, they would love to complete a trio of Sandringham Dragons players, so they pick up Bailey Smith, who would be a massive asset to whatever is left of their midfield brigade.
This would have huge ramifications on the selections of Port Adelaide, St. Kilda and the Western Bulldogs. This would mean Jack Lukosius, who was long a potential number one pick, slides to Port Adelaide with the fifth pick. Watching him, Todd Marshall and Charlie Dixon would be quite exciting to watch. St. Kilda could take the gamble of Izak Rankine. I say it is a gamble because there have been rumblings of his desire to stay in South Australia. A safer bet would be Connor Rozee - but how much safer? Let's just say Rankine goes to the Saints has he is the better talent, the Bulldogs then have a choice to make at the seventh pick - do they go for Rozee or do they go for Caldwell? Basing it on the potential of Rozee and the fact that Dogs' coach Luke Beveridge loves versatile players, Rozee would be a great fit at the club and they should take him here. Caldwell will most likely fall to the Crows with the eighth pick in the Draft and will give them midfield depth.
Rounding out the top 10 include Jordan Clark to GWS, a rebounding defender that would slot in well there and Jackson Hately to Port Adelaide, which would make sense as Port would like to add to their midfield stocks.
The Provisional Top 10
1. Carlton – Sam Walsh 2. Gold Coast – Max King 3. Gold Coast – Ben King 4. Gold Coast – Bailey Smith 5. Port Adelaide – Jack Lukosius 6. St. Kilda – Izak Rankine 7. Western Bulldogs – Connor Rozee 8. Adelaide – Jye Caldwell 9. GWS – Jordan Clark 10. Port Adelaide – Jackson Hately
I don't think it matters who falls to the Western Bulldogs selection at pick seven, or who falls to St. Kilda's and Port Adelaide's picks and even to a lesser extent, Adelaide's pick, all of these clubs look set to walk away with at least one player with the potential to be a star in the league.
For my fellow Bulldogs supporters, I think this is one AFL Draft that the Western Bulldogs cannot lose and I await Thursday night with eager anticipation. I would love to see the Dogs take Bailey Smith with their pick, but I am thinking it's more than likely he's gone with that pick. I think taking one of Jye Caldwell, Connor Rozee or perhaps someone like Ben King could potentially slip through would still be a huge win for the Dogs as they prepare for 2019.