With the AFL Draft to begin over a two-day period on Thursday with the first round, I thought I'd try my luck at predicting the first round of this year's draft. There's been a bit of researching to this, but having done it over the past couple of years, it's always been fun to predict and see who goes where. There are to be 20 selections made before we add in all the Academy picks and Father/Son Selections. All in all, I believe there will be 24 selections made in the first round alone. I will also stress that there will be live pick trading on draft night, which makes the predicting all the more harder. But for the moment, the draft order in the first round hasn't changed since the end of the Trade Period.
So without further ado, let's introduce who I think goes where in the first round in my 2018 Mock Draft
1. Carlton – Sam Walsh (Geelong Falcons, Midfielder, 183cm, 75kg)
Carlton have been high on this young man for quite sometime now. Some may debate he's not be the best talent in the draft, but he's still easily a top three pick and given that he is one of the best midfielders in this year's draft class – add to the fact that midfielders are something the Blues desperately need, Sam Walsh should be the number one pick in this year's draft. He averaged 29.5 disposals in the Under-18 Championships and was named the Larke Medallist as the player of the Championships. He's an elite ball-winner and will slot right in to Carlton's team next year.
2. Gold Coast – Jack Lukosius (Woodville-West Torrens, Forward, 194cm, 85kg) Jack Lukosius has been raved about an awful lot this year and loomed as a potential number one draft selection for a while, but he'll slide here, because he isn't exactly what the Blues need. However, a forward that can cover the loss of Tom Lynch is exactly what the Suns need and Lukosius fits the bill. For a man his size, he covers the ground so easily – Nick Riewoldt like – and he is a beautiful user of the football, particularly by foot. He has been touted as a 'once in a generation' type player, the Suns will not pass him up.
3. Gold Coast – Izak Rankine (West Adelaide, Forward/Midfielder, 180cm, 76kg) Gold Coast will want to retain players after a mass exodus of talent in the past few years. They should draft another fellow SA-boy here with Izak Rankine, who possesses elite talent and has the potential to be a critical game-changer in the league in five years. He is a proven goal-kicker and is quite the athlete, being able to weave out of traffic and make his possessions count. He's a class personified talent either in the middle or up forward, booting three goals in a first quarter against Vic Metro in the Under-18 Championships.
4. St. Kilda – Max King (Sandringham Dragons, Key Forward, 204cm, 86kg) He would've been considered as the number one overall pick, if it had not been for an Anterior Cruciate Ligament injury that he sustained playing school footy. Nonetheless, the Saints would love a key forward that can dominate games of footy the way that Max King has in the juniors. In his one and only game in the TAC cup this year, he kicked 8.6 in a mammoth effort against Oakleigh, so I don't expect his value to decrease too much. Add the fact that King has been doing his rehabbing at Moorabbin this year, it suggests that the Saints fancy him, although Bailey Smith could be on the radar as well. He's got incredible marking hands and is elite at ground level for a young man his size.
5. Sydney – Nick Blakey (Sydney Academy Selection, Forward, 195cm, 80kg – Matches Port Adelaide Bid) Expect a bid for Nick Blakey – the son of former Fitzroy and North Melbourne midfielder John Blakey – to feature around the 5-10 range. Has played most of his time this year as a forward, but has the potential to play a number of roles and become a versatile swingman in the mould of Jarryd Roughead. He's incredibly mobile, has a reliable kick on him with a few Pre-Seasons in the gym, could become a very damaging player, wherever you put him. Could've easily been a Roo or a Brisbane Lion, but the Swans have nabbed themselves another gem from their Academy. 6. Port Adelaide – Ben King (Sandringham Dragons, Key Defender/Key Forward, 202cm, 85kg)
Port would love to take a key defender on their list because they are very short on tall backmen – you can't expect Tom Jonas and Tom Clurey to get the job done week after week. If they don't go for a South Australian here, expect them to land Ben King. The twin brother of Max, Ben plays his best footy as a key defender. However, since his brother went down with injury, King has played more as a full-forward and has been effective, booting goals in both the TAC cup and in the under-18 championships. His ability to play either end of the ground should be too good for Port Adelaide to pass up here.
7. Gold Coast – Connor Rozee (North Adelaide, Forward/Midifielder, 185cm, 74kg) Gold Coast would love to complete their trio of talented South Australians with their first three picks, and if Connor Rozee is available here, they will be very keen on him. He is incredibly versatile – able to play midfielder or forward effectively and has even had stints in the backline. He has a remarkable leap and has the pace and athleticism to start his career as a pressure forward and make a positive impact to his team. He has a lot of tricks in the bag and could even go inside the top five. 8. Western Bulldogs – Bailey Smith (Sandringham Dragons, Midfielder, 186cm, 82kg) If it weren't for an Achilles injury during the season, Bailey Smith could've pressed serious claims to be a top-three pick – such is his talent. He could still go as early as St. Kilda's pick, but the Bulldogs are strongly linked to him. Has played a lot of his football as a running half-back flanker, but has showed in the under-18 Championships this year that he can dominate in the middle with his work-ethic, endurance and ability to win the contested ball, if he's still available here, the Dogs must pounce on him. Smith boasts leadership qualities as well. 9. Adelaide – Jye Caldwell (Bendigo Pioneers, Midfielder, 184cm, 78kg) Despite his recent run with injuries, Jye Caldwell's potential has intrigued a lot of suitors and is a chance to go as high as Port's pick, which is currently number five. But I think he'll slide to Adelaide's pick here. Caldwell's ability to win contested ball in the middle has been documented and is considered by many as a tackling machine that simply loves a contest. The Crows struggled for midfield depth this year and the addition of Caldwell will help out the Crows if the likes of Rory Sloane and the Crouch brothers fall to injury again.
10. GWS – Jordan Clark (Claremont, Defender, 182cm, 78kg) A promising cricketer, Clark chose the prospect of playing AFL footy over a cricket career and could easily be a top-10 selection, given how good he has been coming off half-back this year. Clark was named an All-Australian in the under-18 Championships, where he has showcased his elite run and carry, as well as ability to hit targets consistently under pressure. He was named as WA's best player in the championships, averaging 19.5 disposals and 5.5 rebound 50s. He could easily fill in the role that Heath Shaw currently has at the Giants when the ex-Pie's career is over. 11. Port Adelaide – Jackson Hately (Central District, Midfielder, 190cm, 81kg) The appeal that he is a tall midfielder and that he is a South Australian lad should appeal Port Adelaide to take Jackson Hately with their second pick of the draft. An All-Australian in the under-18 Championships, Hately has the body to thrive in contested situations and win the ball at will. There have been question marks about his ability to make decisions under pressure, but he can run all day, he knows where to find the footy and has good vision in close. He'd be a good pick-up for Port here, because he may not get to their next pick, which is currently pick 15. 12. GWS – Riley Collier-Dawkins (Oakleigh Chargers, Midfielder, 193cm, 88kg) There would be a lot of clubs that would be excited about the potential that is written all over Riley Collier-Dawkins. Some experts have likened him to Marcus Bontempelli in the way that he impacts games with his disposals without having a big possession game. His Finals campaign for Oakleigh raised his value significantly, averaging 21 disposals and a goal per game across the TAC Cup Finals. Given that GWS lost two very good midfielders in Dylan Shiel and Tom Scully over the off-season, Collier-Dawkins and his game sense would be a good addition here. 13. Geelong – Xavier Duursma (Gippsland Power, Midfielder, 185cm, 71kg) Geelong have had a lot of history of drafting left-field players over the years, so it's hard to know who they will go for.. I think a player like Xavier Duursma is a huge chance to land here. They will probably need to think for the future and given that Joel Selwood and Gary Ablett are both in their 30s and Tim Kelly won't be there beyond 2019, Duursma's ability to win contested footy as well as an play as an outside midfielder could entice the Cats to take him. He may need a pre-season or two in the gym, but he's got exceptional endurance and is very competitive. 14. North Melbourne – Tarryn Thomas (North Melbourne Academy Selection, Midfielder, 189cm, 73kg) Expect North to match whatever bid comes their way – their may be a bid inside the top 10, but I think it's more likely to see one bid between picks 12-16. Tarryn Thomas was seen as a potential top-five pick ahead of the 2018 year, but injuries and some form troubles over the under-18 Championships have hurt his value a little bit, but there is still a lot there that will have clubs placing a bid sooner rather than later. He has good pace and acceleration and his tackling ability is as good as anyone's in this draft class.
15. Adelaide – Chayce Jones (Launceston, Midfielder, 180cm, 74kg) Alongside Tarryn Thomas, Chayce Jones is one of the best young talents to come from Tasmania this year. Whilst he was predominantly a midfielder that claimed an All-Australian spot during the under-18 Championships, Jones has the capabilities to become a versatile player that can play either end of the ground – whether that be as playing as an attacking half-back flanker or floating across half-forward making an impact on the scoreboard. As a midfielder, Jones can win his fair share of contested ball as well as playing an outside role and is a good kick with either foot. 16. Fremantle – Liam Stocker (Sandringham Dragons, Midfielder, 183cm, 83kg) Having lost an elite ball-winner such as Lachie Neale hurts Fremantle's on-ball brigade a fair amount, but given there are a plethora of midfielders available here, having someone with the potential of Liam Stocker should entice the Dockers to select him here. He missed a lot of footy this year – including the under-18 championships – with a broken jaw, but excelled for Sandringham in the TAC Cup when he returned from injury and claimed the Morrish Medal as the league's best and fairest. He's an elite contested ball winner, has amazing workrate and knows how to win clearances. 17. Collingwood – Isaac Quaynor (Collingwood Academy Selection, Defender, 182cm, 82kg) Looks set to join the Pies via their Next Generation Academy and a bid could be placed between 15-20. Isaac Quaynor could be the best one-on-one defenders in this year's draft class. He's got great pace, athleticism and power to become a legit ball-winning half-back flanker down the line, but for now, he excels in playing the shutdown role in defence and is capable of shutting down both small forwards and forwards taller than him. When he does get the ball, Quaynor does love to run the ball out of defence and the scope to be something more than a elite lockdown defender in five years. 18. Port Adelaide – Zak Butters (Western Jets, Midfielder, 181cm, 70kg) The Power would love to have some pace on their list, given the exits of Polec, Pittard and Wingard – all of them capable runners. Western Jets' prospect Zak Butters is ranged to go from 15 to the end of the first round. He's got elite pace and his ability to break the lines has been well documented and his foot skills should not be underestimated either. Season-ending shoulder surgery after the under-18 championships has diminished a little bit of draft value, but I still expect him to go late in the first round. 19. Adelaide – Curtis Taylor (Calder Cannons, Forward/Midfielder, 186cm, 79kg) The Crows could use a mid-sized forward when you consider that Charlie Cameron is gone and now so has Mitch McGovern. Curtis Taylor would be a very logical choice, and given his potential, could even be used with Adelaide's earlier selection (15th). His ability to make something out of nothing in the forward line would entice a lot of clubs to select Taylor. His leads as a forward are very good and has proven to be a reliable shot on goal. He can also play further up the ground as a midfielder and has proven to win his own ball on numerous occasions.
20. Western Bulldogs – Rhylee West (Western Bulldogs Father/Son Selection, Midfielder, 180cm, 80kg) The Bulldogs will land their man with Rhylee West, the son of a champion ball-winner Scott West. Expect a bid for him in between 15-25 as a lot of clubs would be eyeing off this young man. Rhylee nearly plays in the same vein as his father – he is an elite ball-winner in close and has good vision in terms of firing off handballs to team mates. He has proven that he can also push forward and put one through the big sticks. Starred for Vic Metro in the under-18 championships and was solid enough in the TAC Cup for clubs to consider placing a bid for. 21. Richmond – Ned McHenry (Geelong Falcons, Midfielder/Forward, 178cm, 71kg) Richmond lost a lot of depth players over the off-season, so I think they'd look for best available talent with this pick. Ned McHenry would be seen as a good choice in the 20s and is noted as one of the better small-forward options in this year's Draft class. McHenry led the Under-18 Championships in pressure acts and tackles. Given his pace, elite endurance and outstanding work ethic, there is scope for McHenry to push further up the ground and become a midfielder who can work both inside and out.
22. Brisbane – Luke Valente (Norwood, Midfielder, 186cm, 80kg) Having captained South Australia to a successful Under-18 Championships and named vice captain of the Under-18's All-Australian team, it would be a bargain if the Lions could snap up Luke Valente with this pick. It sounds a stretch so early on, but he would be able to help fill the role that was left by Dayne Beams. His leadership qualities are excellent, and so is his ability to find the footy and use it effectively – averaging 23 disposals per game at 84 percent efficiency. Taking home South Australia's MVP of the Championships. 23. GWS – Sam Sturt (Dandenong Stingrays, Forward, 188cm, 78kg)
There has been a lot of talk about Sam Sturt and the potential that he carries and looms as one of the draft bolters of 2018. He plays predominantly as a forward and there's a lot of things that he's done throughout the year that suggest he could be worth a pick-up late in the first round. He's got a left foot that is deadly accurate – whether that is to a team mate or going for goal – he also carries extraordinary athleticism and has an incredible football brain. Enormous upside that's worth the gamble here in the 20s.
24. West Coast – Ian Hill (Perth, Midfielder/Forward, 175cm, 76kg) The cousin of both Brad and Stephen Hill at Fremantle, Ian Hill looks like he'll land at either Fremantle or West Coast. I can't see him going at the Dockers with their first pick, so I think landing Hill here is a plus for the Eagles. Like his cousins, Hill has the pace and the skills to become a very exciting player down the road. A pair of shoulder surgeries have hampered his 2018 year and may cause his draft value to diminish a little, but he's likely to land somewhere in the first round, given his ability to also play around goal effectively.