We're less than a week away from the 2019 AFL Season, and although it might be a little bit later than I was hoping to do it, I managed to get my annual season preview up before the beginning of a new season. In years gone past, I've just done it in two parts - one part just the bottom 10 and the other part the top eight - Not this year.
This year I'm doing three parts, Today will be the teams I think will finish in the bottom six. The second part will be 12th-7th and the final part will be the top six. So without further delays, let's introduce who I think will be in the bottom six in 2019. 18th – Gold Coast Suns
Twelve months ago when I did my season preview, the Gold Coast Suns were here because realistically, they are playing with a bunch of kids and maybe one or two A-grade players. Today, they come into 2019 without either co-captain from 2018, and despite bringing in guys such as Jack Hombsch, George Horlin-Smith and Anthony Miles – guys that have had senior experience at other clubs, the team is still relatively green and they're going to struggle to put wins on the board again.
Has Stuart Dew put them on the right path? It's a hard question to answer right now, but I believe he has started putting the foundations in place. The Gold Coast are predominantly kids with a sprinkle of experience on every line. Watching the likes of Izak Rankine and Jack Lukosius this year is going to be something to look forward to – both possess real exciting upside. As well as the top-up players Chris Burgess, Sam Collins and Josh Corbett – all three mature-aged recruits from the VFL who can and should play right away.
There's upside in this list, but the reality is that they're still a year away from being a year away – as Dwayne Russell said the other week in their first JLT game. Alex Sexton showed great signs last year, and there's signs that the likes of Lachie Weller, Jack Bowes, Brayden Fiorini and Will Brodie and others will take another step in their development. Losing Rory Thompson to a season-ending knee injury will hurt them as well as he is a very important player in defence.
17th – Carlton
This is going to be a fascinating year for Carlton. They were very heavy in recruiting players over the off-season after being condemned to their fourth wooden spoon since 2005. It was a pretty rough year, and well they're going to have to tackle this season without Sam Docherty again, after rupturing his ACL again in the pre-season just before the new year – sometimes football is a cruel sport and seeing him not out there again will hurt their defences again.
To their recruits. They unveiled ex-Crow Mitch McGovern as their prized recruit. To be honest, I think he'll complement the likes of Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow quite nicely, he loves to fly, he'll most likely be the third tall option up forward and he has proven that he knows where the goals are. Let's not discount the others that they brought in. Will Setterfield looks like he'll fit in nicely in a young midfield brigade and thrive. Alex Fasolo will bring some experience up forward and Nic Newman will fill in for Docherty this year.
But let's talk about Sam Walsh – gee whiz watching his JLT game against Essendon, for someone who is 18 and hasn't played a league game yet, he showed composure akin to a 200-gamer and his skills and toughness showed that he should be a lock for the Rising Star this year, barring injury of course. I'm predicting another tough year for Carlton, but I think they'll actually be a bit more competitive than they were last year – the wheels are turning.
16th – St. Kilda
What the hell was wrong with St. Kilda last year? The previous two years were promising enough to suggest that they were going to be at the very least a finals contender. But after a win in round one, they went backwards faster than you could say 1966. There's reasons for this – maybe a lack of leadership following the retirements of Riewoldt and Montagna in 2017. There were suggestions that Alan Richardson was focusing to much on the weaknesses instead of playing players to their strengths. Whatever it is, it must be rectified this year, otherwise Richardson's time might be up.
Their investment in ex-Swan Dan Hannebery is a bold strategy. We know his best football is great, but his input was declining rapidly over the past two seasons. Will a move back home to Victoria rejuvenate his career? He's 28 so he should be smack bang in the prime of his career – The Saints will need him to perform this year if they are to give sides a run for their money this year. I also think ex-Demon Dean Kent will open up another dimension in their forward line – which is another thing they need to fix this year as inaccuracy was a massive issue in 2018.
Where else will the improvement come from? Well Jade Gresham is coming along real nicely, and expect him to continue to flourish this year. Likewise the young fellas such as Hunter Clark, Ben Long, Nick Coffield, Dan McKenzie, Josh Battle and Jack Lonie. Patrick McCartin needs a big year this season. He has had a horrendous run of concussion problems and his work on the ground hasn't helped the cause either. Needs a good run of things, otherwise Battle and Max King – who will be exciting to watch when he gets on the park – will overtake him as the key pillars up forward.
15th – Fremantle
Fremantle right now are a funny side. Not in the 'ha-ha' sense, but the gap between their best football and their worst football is staggering. They were 6-7 after round 13 last year and only proceeded to win two more games after that. The year before, they were 6-3 after nine rounds and lost 11 of the next 13. This is how massive the gap is, when they lose, they lose bad, but they have pulled off some good footy in the first half of both 2017 and last year. They just need to sustain it for longer than half-way. Do that and who knows where they will finish.
The big inclusions are the key forwards of Jesse Hogan and Rory Lobb. It's no secret that they have been crying out for key forwards since the retirement of Matthew Pavlich. Cam McCarthy hasn't really come along as well as they'd hoped. Neither has Shane Kersten – which poses the question: What does 2019 hold for that pair? Travis Colyer could do some damage up forward – he's got the pace, whilst Reece Conca will add to Fremantle's midfield depth.
On the subject of midfield depth, losing Lachie Neale to Brisbane is unquestionably a mammoth loss for the Dockers. This will leave Nat Fyfe with primarily kids that will need time to develop. Andrew Brayshaw will be a star, likewise Adam Cerra. Michael Walters will most likely play a lot of minutes in the middle. Maybe we'll see the likes of Ed Langdon, Darcy Tucker – maybe even draftees such as Luke Valente and Brett Bewley have a run in their at some stage during the season. This side can range anywhere from here to the outskirts of the eight. Until they can get some consistency, I'll have them here thanks.
14th – Port Adelaide
What are Port Adelaide as a football club? We'll approach five years to the day this season that Port Adelaide were less than a kick away from making the 2014 Grand Final. Since then, they've only made the Finals once and that was when they were bundled out by an eighth-placed West Coast side that was realistically there to make up the numbers. So where has that team gone? Did they overachieve? Right now, I'm pushing the needle towards yes – where are they going to go this year?
They're probably not going to make the Finals this year, and if the appointment of Ollie Wines and Tom Jonas is any indication, then I think they're going to rebuild on the run. For the record, I like the appointments of both Wines and Jonas as co-captains. Losing Jared Polec really hurts their outside pace, and they made the big decision to offload Chad Wingard over the off-season. I have a feeling they're going to push the next brigade of youngsters on their list. Robbie Gray, Paddy Ryder and Travis Boak are great players, but they are all in their 30s and they don't have a lot of support.
The trio of Connor Rozee, Zak Butters and Xavier Duursma will all get games this year – all three bring good talent. Scott Lycett will provide good service if Ryder struggles with injury again. Ryan Burton should thrive back in his home state of South Australia, likewise Sam Mayes. Tom Rockliff looks like the player he was at Brisbane, and if that's the case – watch out. Todd Marshall is an exciting forward prospect who started last year strong and I hope he has a better 2019 and there's upside with Riley Bonner, Tom Clurey, Dougal Howard and Dan Houston.
13th – Western Bulldogs
Speaking of where teams are at – this is a side that have regressed massively since winning the flag in 2016. Perhaps this side peaked way too early when the won the flag, but the reality is that they have hardly bitten since winning the flag. Maybe it's just the plethora of young guys that are in this team. Last year, they lost Tom Liberatore for the season in the opening 15 minutes and the menacing presence of Liam Picken up forward was missed sorely. As a result, inexperience such as Aaron Naughton, Ed Richards, Billy Gowers and Patrick Lipinski featured heavily – all four are future best 22 players.
They were belted for large portions of 2018, but their last month was promising – winning three of four games, with the only loss coming from Richmond by less than a kick. They need to build on that. Jack Macrae and Lachie Hunter were ultra-consistent winners of the footy. Marcus Bontempelli needs a big year – whether as a midfielder or a forward – and Toby McLean, Caleb Daniel, Bailey Williams and Josh Dunkley must take big steps this year, whilst the return of Liberatore will help their on-ball brigade without question.
Josh Schache will also need to step up as the key forward in the absence of Tom Boyd, he showed good signs since he was brought into the side, they must persist. They also need to persist with Tim English as the number one ruckman. The recruits look promising as well, Bailey Smith looks ready to go, Ben Cavarra and Will Hayes are also ready-made recruits from the VFL and should get some game time. Where they finish this year will be anyone's guess – they could be back into finals contention this year for all we know.
Check Back In The Coming Days As We Present The Rest Of The Season Preview