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Alex Docherty

Alex Docherty's 2019 AFL Season Preview Part 2: 12th-7th


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With the 2019 AFL Season drawing ever so near, I have been working on getting my season predictions out before the season begins. On Friday, I released who I thought would finish in the bottom six. The link will be just below for those who haven't seen it.

Otherwise, you may proceed to the teams that I have finishing just outside the top eight, as well as the beginning of my top eight. 12th – Brisbane Lions

There's so much to like about Brisbane's team. Yes, in Chris Fagan's first season they only won five games out of 22. Only three of their losses were by six goals or more, where as in 2017, they lost 11 by six goals or more. There are signs of life at the Gabba and it's the competitive nature and the fact that a lot of their younger kids have formed a very strong bond at the club, which is imperative in the direction they want to go. Can this side win 10 games this year? It isn't beyond them to say the least.

They lost Dayne Beams back to Collingwood, but they get players that I think not just cover him, but maybe make their on-ball brigade just a little bit stronger. They swayed Lachie Neale from Fremantle and he's just simply a ball-magnet. You know what you're going to get from him week in and week out – he consistently puts in big disposal numbers – don't expect it to change this year. Jarryd Lyons will prove to be a handy commodity as well as he is a proven contested ball winner and can gather clearances with regularity as well. Add those two to the likes of Dayne Zorko, Jarrod Berry, Hugh McCluggage and others – it's looking like a formidable midfield.

Their spine is a decent one as well. In defence, Harris Andrews showed before he was knocked out by Jeremy Cameron last year that he is an All-Australian defender in waiting. Darcy Gardiner is coming along well as well and with the general Luke Hodge directing traffic, the defence is as good as it's ever been. Up forward, Eric Hipwood has shown glimpses of his potential over the past two years, but this is going to be the year where he has to kick 40-50 goals if the Lions are to climb up the ladder. Add a fit Charlie Cameron, Lincoln McCarthy and Lewis Taylor, this forward line has potential to cause some headaches this year.

11th – Sydney Sydney have been a staple in the finals picture for well over a decade, having missed the finals just once over the past 15 years – that was in 2009. Ten years later, the Swans have never been in a more vulnerable position to miss finals. They were dreadful against Greater Western Sydney in the Elimination Final – only kicking four goals in total and two of those came late in the contest. The list, despite laden with talent, is the fourth-youngest in the competition, so with that, there's going to be consistency issues.

It's not a Sydney team without Lance Franklin, if he can keep healthy, then I think he's going to go a long way in helping them get to September once again. Recruiting a proven goal-kicker in Daniel Menzel will help their forward structures, whilst seeing Tom McCartin, Ben Ronke, Will Hayward and Ollie Florent continue to development will be exciting. Likewise to Aliir Aliir and Lewis Melican who will no doubt have a lot of responsibility holding down key defensive posts. And then we get to Isaac Heeney and Callum Mills – both should get more midfield minutes this year – and with any luck, they should thrive in there this season.

So what about their recruits? Ryan Clarke showed plenty of potential during his short stint at North Melbourne and could add another to their midfield depth. I'll even go as far as to say he'll do more this season than what Dan Hannebery did in his last two with Sydney. Jackson Thurlow is a good defender when he's not injured and could be one to watch this season, but Nick Blakey will be one many want to watch. For someone his size, he's so clean at ground level, and he's got the skills and the endurance ability to feature for the Swans early.

10th – Hawthorn

When you thought being knocked out in straight sets in last year's finals series was bad enough, then comes the broken leg injury to Tom Mitchell at the start of this year. It's no secret that Tom Mitchell is one of Hawthorn's most important players, and you can criticise him for getting cheap possessions all you want – players that average 35-plus disposals per game are a rare commodity in AFL and his injury opens a massive hole in the middle. Don't be shocked if their contested possessions and clearances are down this year – that's the impact that Mitchell gives the Hawks.

They can try and fill the void as much as they want. I expect James Worpel to have a big run in the middle this year after a successful debut year last year. Likewise to young boys such as Harry Morrison, Daniel Howe and James Cousins who have shown plenty of potential over the past 18 months. There is also a man by the name of Jaeger O'Meara, who should elevate his game this year – providing he doesn't get injured. Then comes the inclusions of both Tom Scully and Chad Wingard – what are there roles going to be this year? Scully is coming back from a nasty ankle injury and Wingard has his inconsistencies. So what happens with their on-ball brigade will be interesting this year.

Appointing Ben Stratton as captain might sound like a bizarre call to people outside of Hawthorn, but I think he's a good leader and can take the next crop of young Hawks to the next tilt at flag, which might be a year or two off. Not a knock on Jarryd Roughead's leadership credentials at all, but I think just focusing on his football would probably be better for him. They have some bloody good players in this side still – Jack Gunston and Luke Breust were All-Australians last year, James Sicily has emerged as an elite talent and Blake Hardwick is an underrated talent.

9th – Geelong

I really don't know what to make of Geelong this season. The consensus will say they are more pretenders than contenders, but the list that is at their disposal says they're capable of competing for a top four spot. Yet, they finished the home and away season in eighth and thrown out of finals in the first week by Melbourne in the first week of Finals. At this point, there should be some pressure on Chris Scott to at least go a little further in the finals – having won just three of their past 12 finals matches. I have them just missing out on the finals this year.

Everyone knows Patrick Dangerfield is a star, but where do they play him? Up forward he is a very formidable target and he give you at least a goal or two a game. But it is in the midfield where he does his best work, winning clearances and contested ball at will. Does Gary Ablett up forward work for them this year? He still showed flashes of brilliance last year despite being on the wrong side of 30, and then you've got the likes of Tim Kelly, Mitch Duncan, Joel Selwood and Sam Menegola. Luke Dahlhaus also comes into this side this season, but you'd think he'd be trialled more as a forward player, where his tackling and pressure will be a welcome asset – gets his kicking boots right and he'll be a good pick up.

The one thing they do have going for them is their defence. Tom Stewart became an All-Australian in just his second season, which is a testament to him as a player. Mark Blicavs became an elite lockdown defender after the third man up rule was scrapped. Zach Tuohy continued to shine as a rebounding defender, and then there were players such as Jake Kolodjashnij and Jack Henry who came into the side and do there job and do it well. Tom Hawkins kicked over 60 goals last year, but they need more targets up there. Gary Rohan can play, but his inconsistencies have been well documented.

8th – Greater Western Sydney

It would be an extremely difficult task to be GWS and holding onto the likes of Adam Treloar, Devon Smith and others. Salary cap issues meant they had to ship another few players out of Blacktown over the off-season – including Dylan Shiel, which will be a massive blow to their on-ball department. Will Setterfield will be a good player at Carlton and Rory Lobb and Tom Scully were valuable contributors over the years, but I think they're coverable at this stage. Having said that, despite all the losses, I still think the Giants have the talent to contend for a spot in the bottom half of the eight.

The midfield is still laden with elite talent. Callan Ward is courageous and consistent. Stephen Coniglio is a star that shone throughout 2018 – I think he can go up another gear this year. Josh Kelly had an injury-plagued 2018, but I think he'll be ready to fire back to his 2017 form this season. Add another year into Tim Taranto, who's looking like he'll emerge sooner rather than later, as well as Brett Deledio, Jacob Hopper and perhaps some of their kids like Jye Caldwell and Jackson Hately – they'll be back up there as the best midfield group sooner rather than later.

Where the Giants finish this year will vary on how good their luck with injury is. Last year, they were absolutely decimated with injuries and they still managed to finish with 14 wins at the end of it all. It enabled the likes of Aiden Bonar, Zac Langdon and Brent Daniels an opportunity for games last year and will be better for it this year. Shane Mumford's inclusion back into the list after a foot injury forced him into retirement will help their ruck stocks immensely. Lachie Whitfield and Zac Williams will be a lethal pair off half-back and if Toby Greene can stay healthy, then the Giants are capable of kicking a winning score most weeks.

7th – North Melbourne

Twelve months ago, everyone was laughing at Brad Scott's claims that North Melbourne were finals contenders. Today, we're not laughing anymore – in 2018, they won 12 games and finished just outside the eight. They could've been there if they hadn't dropped games to Adelaide and the Bulldogs – games that they were expected to win. But nonetheless, they set their expectations this year with a ninth-placed finish in 2018 and with the recruits that they've brought in, it should make this team a legitimate finals contender this year.

The inclusion of Jared Polec is massive. North's on-ball brigade is mostly contested ball-winners. Ben Cunnington is a bull at stoppages and Shaun Higgins has evolved into an elite full-time midfielder and there are others who can do the job there as well – think Paul Ahern, Trent Dumont and Jed Anderson. Polec will provide the outside class that the Roos sorely missed last year. Aaron Hall has proven to be a ball-winner and Dom Tyson has shown he can be a force in the stoppages. That's good midfield depth that will come in handy come the business end of the season.

It also enables Jack Ziebell to play more forward this year, after proving to be quite damaging at times last year – he and Ben Brown will be key to getting a winning score this year. Then add the kids to the mix – Jy Simpkin grows with every game, Luke Davies Uniacke should get some more game time this year and also Tarryn Thomas, their prized draftee from last year's draft. His elite athleticism and kicking skills should see him break into their side early, if it isn't in round one – he looks a ready made prospect. I guess the one thing that I'll miss in this side is Majak Daw – who proved to be so good as an intercept defender last year – praying he comes back sooner rather than later.

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