The time has come for me to reveal where the last six sides finish. For those that have been keeping up, you'll know that Adelaide, Collingwood, Essendon, Melbourne, Richmond and West Coast haven't been revealed yet. The final installment of my season preview will see me place these sides in order from sixth to first.
If you haven't seen who I've placed where in the previous two parts, the links will be down below, otherwise have a look who I think will be in the top six. Part One: 18th-13th
6th – Essendon
Might be a bold claim this, but I think that Essendon are going to come close to a top four spot this year. But, this will come down on their first month and a bit. Last year, they were 2-6 after eight rounds and lost to sides they shouldn't have lost to – such as Carlton and the Western Bulldogs. But after that, they found themselves and challenged all that stood before them, winning 10 of the last 14 games of the season. Following this, there's plenty of expectation around the Bombers to not just make Finals, but firmly entrench themselves inside the top eight in 2019. There cannot be any excuses in Essendon's campaign.
The addition of ex-Giant Dylan Shiel adds another dynamic into what is already a potent midfield. Add him into the likes of Zach Merrett, Dyson Heppell, Devon Smith, David Zaharakis and Andrew McGrath – who should get more minutes this year in the middle – and this is a midfield that has the potential to be a top-four on-ball brigade in a year or so, if not now. Then you have other young guns such as Darcy Parish, Kyle Langford, Matt Guelfi, Jayden Laverde and Aaron Francis who all can feature in their best 22 and flourish in this side this year.
Their forward line is another area of the ground that I will be interested in seeing this season. Joe Daniher kicked over 60 goals in 2017, but struggled with injury and only managed seven games last year. When he was put in cotton wool, the Bombers' forward structure looked a bit better – so when he's back, it adds another intriguing dynamic into their forward line. I liked Mark Baguley's pressure up forward, Jake Stringer looked much better than his form in 2017 and if Orazio Fantasia can keep himself fit, then all of a sudden, it becomes a deadly forward line. Whether or not Daniher can impact the same way he did in 2017 remains to be seen.
5th – Adelaide
What do we make of Adelaide's 2018? Twelve months after being decimated by Richmond in the Grand Final, the Crows' season was over before it began with the entire Collective Mind saga – that camp was to make Adelaide stronger, but instead went backwards mentally and as a result, the win-loss record suffered and finished 12th last year. They've had an off-season to address the issues, and if they can recapture their 2017 form, they are well and truly back in the mix of being a top four side.
The co-captaincy of Rory Sloane alongside Taylor Walker I like. Walker has been unfairly criticised at times over the past 12 months, but he has proven in the past that he can lead a team and lead it well. Appointing Sloane adds a breath of fresh air in the leadership group and without question, should hold them in good stead – providing both stay fit as both missed portions of 2018. Both Matt and Brad Crouch had injury problems last year and also hurt the on-ball brigade immensely. However, Bryce Gibbs was a terrific recruit and if him, the Crouch brothers and Sloane all have healthy years – look out.
Wayne Milera was a quality find down back last year and will work well in tandem with Rory Laird – both creative rebounding defenders who can pretty much run all day if required. Also add Brodie Smith, who played two games last year coming back from a knee injury, that's a pretty damn exciting trio of defensive runners. Eddie Betts had a poor year in comparison to his previous few seasons, so seeing whether or not he can bounce back from that will be fascinating. Seeing the likes of Darcy Fogarty, Hugh Greenwood, Jordan Gallucci and Tom Doedee continue to grow as players will also be exciting to watch.
4th – Richmond
They may be just inside the top four, but let's be real here – Richmond are still a legitimate force in the league as we head towards 2019. They were the best side last year, winning 18 games in the home and away season. However, as they were overpowered by a red-hot Collingwood outfit in the Preliminary Final last year, teams will be beginning to figure out how to beat the Tigers. Alex Rance was destroyed by Jordan De Goey in that particular game – will other clubs follow suit and make him more accountable for his opponents? This is a big question as we approach 2019.
Another big question is how last year's Coleman Medallist Jack Riewoldt can coincide with boom recruit Tom Lynch? On paper, it sounds like a very formidable one-two punch. However, they will need to take some time to develop chemistry. Rance questioned at one stage last year whether or not the addition of Lynch will 'Upset the Apple Cart'. He raises a fair point – it can cost the team maybe a couple of wins early on in the season, but once they can get going, they're going to be hard to beat. Then there is the mosquito fleet that is Daniel Rioli, Dan Butler, Jason Castagna and you also have Jack Higgins, Josh Caddy and Jacob Townsend running through the middle – that is capable of tearing a game apart.
Maybe the losses of players such as Anthony Miles, Corey Ellis, Sam Lloyd and others could hurt their depth a little bit -particularly when all you've brought in is another star key forward – but the big names are all still there – Dusty, Trent Cotchin, Riewoldt, Rance and then others such as Dion Prestia, Kane Lambert, Shane Edwards, Toby Nankervis and Dylan Grimes – all underrated players and all instrumental to Richmond's premiership success. Also add in the likes of Jack Graham, Connor Menadue, Liam Baker, Shai Bolton – who all should get some game time this year, the Tigers are near certainties to bounce back from their Preliminary Final nightmare.
3rd – Collingwood
It was so hard to leave Collingwood out of the top two. Why are they a top two side? Because they have all the bases covered – they have a defence that thrived at the right end of the season, even with all the injuries that they suffered. Their midfield excelled last year – Brayden Sier and Tom Phillips were stunning finds, and then add Dayne Beams to the mix of Pendlebury, Adams, Treloar and Sidebottom – oh my goodness this a damn potent midfield. And their forward line of Mason Cox, Jaidyn Stephenson, Will Hoskin-Elliott and Jordan De Goey were so lethal. Add a healthy Jamie Elliott to this side and it becomes even deadlier.
However, what will the damage to their Grand Final defeat do to them mentally? They kicked the first five goals of last year's Grand Final and threw it away in the final minutes. Surely it scars them to some degree and it's got the potential to hurt them a bit this year, but I think they have the desire and the firepower from every aspect of the ground to keep in touch with fellow top four aspirants and perhaps even go just that one step further and win it all. The problem is that there are at least three other teams that will also be there who are as every chance to win it as the Pies.
Beams' inclusion can open up so many different avenues for the Pies. Will they use him as a half-forward/midfielder who can still give you 25 touches and a goal per game? Will they use him as a full-time midfielder and allow someone with such poise and skill like Pendlebury – who is entering the twilight stages of his career – to play more of a half-back role? The fitness of Brodie Grundy will also be vital to the Pies' premiership ambitions. He was second to Max Gawn in the hitouts but his work around the ground was second to none, averaging over 20 disposals per game and being involved in scoring more heavily last year.
2nd – Melbourne
Most Victorians who aren't Collingwood supporters will most likely jump on the Melbourne bandwagon come September. Why wouldn't they? They currently hold the longest premiership drought of any club, with their last flag coming in 1964 – nearly 55 years to the present day. When you assess this list, there isn't really a big weakness anywhere you look. They have an elite ruckman in Max Gawn, elite midfielders he can palm the ball down to, key forwards capable of kicking a winning score – even with Jesse Hogan gone – and the addition of Steven May in the off-season ensures that their defence is set, especially when Jake Lever comes back from his knee injury mid-season.
Tom McDonald had long been used as a key defender, but last year he came up with 53 goals – even when he missed the opening five games of 2018. That was an immense year, but this year he'll be the number one target. Sam Weideman showed in the Elimination Final last year that he has the capabilities of tearing a game apart – but he has to do it more this year. He played 10 games last year in return for 10 goals and at 21 years of age, has plenty of time to grow into a star. Don't discount their smalls either. Jake Melksham kicked 32 goals last year, Alex Neal-Bullen kicked 27 and Mitch Hannan 22 goals in 15 games.
Have we seen the best of Clayton Oliver and Angus Brayshaw or is the best yet to come? Oliver is just 21 and Brayshaw 23, yet both showed last year that they are elite ball-magnets. Last year was the second year in a row that Oliver averaged just shy of 30 disposals per game and for someone that hasn't played the game long (Entering his fourth season), it's nearly unheard of for someone to be performing so well, so early. Brayshaw finally got some consistency in his game after years of injury issues – namely concussion and excelled. It is also hard to forget that the likes of Jack Viney, Nathan Jones, James Harmes and Christian Petracca also run in the middle – and all of them have a big influence on games on their day.
1st – West Coast
There wasn't much love from any of the Victorian journalists on the 2018 premiers – which completely baffles me. It's always hard to back up your premiership year, but realistically, why can't the Eagles go back-to-back? Everyone doubted West Coast this time last year and it sounds like most people are doubting them again – well in Victoria anyway. The only players missing from their premiership team are Scott Lycett and Mark LeCras. Nathan Vardy was good enough last year to hold down the number one spot until Nic Naitanui returns, whilst Keegan Brooksby and Tom Hickey were brought in to cover the loss of Lycett.
There are plenty of replacements for LeCras – Liam Ryan was a find last year, but his discipline needs a bit of work, Willie Rioli will only grow as he continues to play games, likewise Daniel Venables and Jake Waterman and I think Oscar Allen and Jack Petruccelle can get more games this year as well. Jack Darling was in career-best form before he went down with injury mid year. If he can have a full-year, he'll be an All-Australian. Josh Kennedy kicked 43 goals in 14 games – again, if he has a full year, it almost makes it a near-impossible task for opposition defences to shut down the West Coast forwards.
Also keep in mind that Andrew Gaff will come back in early in the season after serving his suspension. Time to put it behind us now, we all know that he is an elite outside player and he will only enhance the on-ball brigade of Elliot Yeo, Luke Shuey, Jack Redden, Dom Sheed and others. Whilst we're on Sheed, he was the difference in not just West Coast's Grand Final win, but in their September campaign full stop. The Eagles were the worst team in the home and away season at winning ground balls. His pre-season suggests his form won't be going away any time soon, which is good news for Eagles fans.