At the start of the year, this particular game would've been circled as a near certain win for the Western Bulldogs. As they head into the round five clash with Carlton, this near certainty is now scribbled into a “must win” game. Sure Carlton remain the only team that has yet to win a game in 2019, but the way the Blues have played this year suggests that they have taken another step under Brendan Bolton.
They haven't had any blow out losses so far. Granted, they've come across Richmond, Port Adelaide, Sydney and Gold Coast – They were with Richmond up until three quarter time, Jury's still out on Port as a genuine side, whilst Sydney and Gold Coast were winnable games – particularly the Suns game last week – where they coughed up a goal and the lead with 10 seconds to go.
That was the one that they should've won, but I have no doubt the Blues are on the right path. I have no doubt that they will have their eyes set on this game as another winnable match. The Bulldogs cannot afford to drop their guard on this one – especially since they have lost their last two matches. Last week was a much better effort in comparison to the Gold Coast game, but there are still some skills and decision making errors that need to be ironed out.
They sort that out on Sunday afternoon, then the Dogs could be in for a good afternoon, but I'm bracing for a Carlton challenge here. It should be a beauty either way – the Bulldogs have won their past five games, with Carlton's last win coming five years ago. If the last time these two met was any indication, we will be in for a close one.
The Teams
Western Bulldogs IN: Will Hayes, Lachlan Young, Bailey Williams OUT: Taylor Duryea (Hip), Matthew Suckling (Groin), Josh Schache (Omitted)
B: Bailey Williams, Zaine Cordy, Hayden Crozier HB: Caleb Daniel, Easton Wood, Ed Richards C: Lachie Hunter, Tom Liberatore, Jason Johannisen HF: Billy Gowers, Josh Dunkley, Mitch Wallis F: Toby McLean, Aaron Naughton, Tory Dickson FOL: Tim English, Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae INT: Bailey Smith, Sam Lloyd, Will Hayes, Lachie Young EMG: Jackson Trengove, Pat Lipinski, Roarke Smith, Lin Jong
The Western Bulldogs have made three changes. They will miss Taylor Duryea and Matt Suckling to injuries, whilst they've made the call to drop Josh Schache after two very quiet weeks, following his career-best four majors against Hawthorn in round two. Amongst the inclusions are two debutants in Will Hayes and Lachie Young, whilst Bailey Williams is back for the first time since round one.
Bulldogs supporters may know Hayes from the Footscray VFL team, where has played a key role in their team last year. He was also a part of their VFL premiership teams of both 2014 and 2016. He's a hard worker and a proven ball winner at VFL level. Young was taken from the Rookie Draft last year and is described as a rebounding defender who can read the play exceptionally well, as well take a strong overhead mark.
Carlton
IN: Matthew Kreuzer, Cameron Polson, Jack Silvagni OUT: Will Setterfield (Suspension), Matthew Lobbe, Levi Casboult (Both Omitted)
B: Nic Newman, Liam Jones, Lachie Plowman HB: Kade Simpson, Jacob Weitering, Caleb Marchbank C: Lochie O'Brien, Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh HF: Michael Gibbons, Charlie Curnow, Ed Curnow F: Sam Petrevski-Seton, Mitch McGovern, Marc Murphy FOL: Harry McKay, Paddy Dow, Zac Fisher INT: Dale Thomas, Matthew Kreuzer, Cameron Polson, Jack Silvagni EMG: Levi Casboult, Matthew Lobbe, Matthew Kennedy, Angus Schumacher
Carlton will also bring in three inclusions to Sunday's clash. They will welcome back Cameron Polson after he was dropped from last week's game against the Gold Coast. They will also bring in Matthew Kreuzer and Jack Silvagni for their first games of 2019, replacing Matthew Lobbe and Levi Casboult in their respective positions. Will Setterfield will miss the next two games after a tackle on Gold Coast's Wil Powell left him concussed.
Recent History (Past 10 Matches)
Round 22, 2018 – Marvel Stadium: Carlton 7.7.49 def by Western Bulldogs 10.6.66
Round 6, 2018 – Marvel Stadium: Western Bulldogs 11.14.80 def Carlton 8.11.59
Round 17, 2017 – MCG: Carlton 9.8.62 def by Western Bulldogs 12.10.82
Round 4, 2016 – Marvel Stadium: Carlton 7.7.49 def by Western Bulldogs 13.7.85
Round 14, 2015 – Marvel Stadium: Western Bulldogs 9.10.64 def Carlton 7.11.53
Round 5, 2014 – Marvel Stadium: Western Bulldogs 13.13.91 def by Carlton 18.11.119
Round 20, 2013 – Marvel Stadium: Carlton 13.11.89 def by Western Bulldogs 16.21.117
Round 17, 2012 – Marvel Stadium: Western Bulldogs 12.12.84 def by Carlton 16.6.102
Round 16, 2011 – Marvel Stadium: Western Bulldogs 14.12.96 def Carlton 9.15.69
Round 15, 2010 – Marvel Stadium: Carlton 8.10.58 def by Western Bulldogs 20.6.126
Players To Watch
Western Bulldogs – Billy Gowers
Going to put the blowtorch on Billy Gowers this week – he needs a massive game this weekend after just recording five touches under the Friday night lights last week against the Pies, four of those five touches were handballs. We've seen Josh Schache dropped after two very quiet weeks, I don't think Gowers can afford another quiet one this week – particularly against a team he was once a part of their rookie list. He's been very good the first three weeks of the season, kicking six goals and presenting up the ground well.
Carlton – Kade Simpson
Very easy to put Patrick Cripps in this slot, but I'm going to highlight the evergreen defender in Kade Simpson. Last time the Bulldogs and Blues met at Docklands, Simpson got the three votes for a solid game across the half back line – recording 35 disposals and eight rebound 50s. As a matter of fact, he has good recent history against the Bulldogs, averaging 26 disposals, 4.3 marks and 5.3 rebound 50s per game in his past three matches.
Final Verdict – Western Bulldogs By 6 Points
I'm not confident about the Bulldogs here, but I'll back them in to get back into the winners list here, a very tight, very scrappy affair. However, they cannot afford to allow Carlton to get the jump, much similar to how the Gold Coast did a couple of weeks ago – it's not going to be handed to them on a silver platter and long gone is the notion of dead certainties. The Dogs get enough inside 50 entries, they just need to be more efficient whenever they go forward of centre.
Cue my anticipation of seeing Marcus Bontempelli and Patrick Cripps going head to head in the middle. The Bont's getting increased minutes in the centre this year and he's benefitting from it greatly, averaging career-highs in disposals, tackles, inside 50s and clearances. Cripps himself is having himself a fine start to the year, averaging an absurd 30.5 disposals, 8.2 tackles and 10.2 clearances per game. They say this a fair bit, but this game could genuinely be won and lost in the middle.