As we approach round seven, both the Western Bulldogs and Richmond face must-win games as they go head-to-head on Saturday night under the Marvel Stadium roof. Whilst the early indication points to a likely Richmond victory, both sides have matched up extremely well in recent years, so your guess is as good as anyone's as to what might happen on Saturday night.
In the last round of the 2018 home and away season, Richmond only just snuck in against a Western Bulldogs' team that had nothing to play for. You can argue that the Tigers were only going in second gear as they were looking to go deep into September. However, in the two years before that, the Bulldogs got up by very small margins – one was against a Tigers side that had struggled all throughout the year (2016) and the other was against a Richmond side that ended up winning the premiership (2017).
Dissecting Richmond's first six games have been very interesting. They have lost a fair amount of players during this time and have only lost twice. Alex Rance is out for the season as he blew his knee out in round one. Trent Cotchin has missed a bit of footy thus far, and they are going to be without Jack Riewoldt for more time now. They have had to rely on younger players such as Jack Ross, Sydney Stack, Liam Baker and others to aid them to their victories so far this year – not that it's a bad thing.
The Bulldogs themselves, looked a much better side against Fremantle last week. However, the same accuracy problems that have been haunting them in front of goal for most of the year cost them what could've been a close finish against the Dockers. If they can bring the fight to Richmond on Saturday night, they will be very much in with the chance. If they can bring their kicking boots with them for a change, they could cause a big upset and get their season back on track.
The Dogs need to win this game, not many sides have made the finals coming back from 2-5 after seven games. Was last week a step back in the right direction? We'll know more come Saturday night.
The Teams
Western Bulldogs No Change
B: Ed Richards, Jackson Trengove, Hayden Crozier
HB: Caleb Daniel, Zaine Cordy, Easton Wood
C: Lachie Hunter, Tom Liberatore, Jason Johannisen
HF: Billy Gowers, Marcus Bontempelli, Sam Lloyd F: Toby McLean, Aaron Naughton, Tory Dickson
FOL: Tim English, Josh Dunkley, Jack Macrae
INT: Mitch Wallis, Bailey Smith, Will Hayes, Lachie Young EMG: Josh Schache, Fletcher Roberts, Patrick Lipinski, Roarke Smith
Interesting to see Luke Beveridge yield no changes into this side this weekend. Suppose it's a good thing as he has faith in the 22 that ventured to Perth last weekend. The side itself wasn't bad, and I like that Jackson Trengove is named in the back line and Josh Dunkley is named on ball. I wonder when Patrick Lipinski will get a game? His form in the VFL so far has been pretty good, averaging 23.3 disposals across three games so far this season.
Richmond
IN: Shai Bolton, Connor Menadue OUT: David Astbury (Ankle), Jack Riewoldt (Knee)
B:Nathan Broad, Nick Vlastuin, Dylan Grimes HB: Sydney Stack, Shane Edwards, Bachar Houli C: Brandon Ellis, Dion Prestia, Kamdyn McIntosh
HF: Daniel Rioli, Jack Ross, Jason Castagna F: Shai Bolton, Tom Lynch, Dustin Martin
FOL: Toby Nankervis, Josh Caddy, Kane Lambert INT: Noah Balta, Liam Baker, Jack Higgins, Connor Menadue
EMG: Riley Collier-Dawkins, Ryan Garthwaite, Ivan Soldo, Dan Butler
Two massive outs for Richmond. As mentioned earlier, Jack Riewoldt will miss a fair portion of footy, as he sustained a PCL injury during last Wednesday's game against Melbourne. David Astbury also injured his ankle in the same game and will miss this game as well. However, it presents another opportunity for a few of their younger players that haven't had a lot of senior experience – recalling Shai Bolton and Connor Menadue, both have the pace and talent to make it in the league.
Recent History (Past 10 Matches)
Round 23, 2018 – MCG: Richmond 15.8.98 def Western Bulldogs 14.11.95
Round 7, 2017 – Marvel Stadium: Western Bulldogs 11.14.80 def Richmond 11.9.75
Round 16, 2016 – Marvel Stadium: Western Bulldogs 12.13.85 def Richmond 11.9.75
Round 2, 2015 – MCG: Richmond 9.12.66 def by Western Bulldogs 12.13.85
Round 3, 2014 – Marvel Stadium: Western Bulldogs 15.10.100 def Richmond 15.8.98
Round 13, 2013 – Marvel Stadium: Western Bulldogs 8.13.61 def by Richmond 17.19.121
Round 3, 2013 – Marvel Stadium: Richmond 20.15.135 def Western Bulldogs 10.8.68
Round 20, 2012 – MCG: Richmond 22.18.150 def Western Bulldogs 12.8.80
Round 8, 2011 – Marvel Stadium: Western Bulldogs 23.15.153 def Richmond 18.10.118
Round 2, 2010 – MCG: Richmond 7.6.48 def by Western Bulldogs 17.18.120
Players To Watch
Western Bulldogs – Sam Lloyd
Facing his old side for the very first time since being traded down to Whitten Oval, it's going to be very interesting to see how Sam Lloyd plays here. He hasn't been too bad so far in the red, white and blue this year. A bit like the team overall, he has had his good moments and he has had his bad moments. So far he's kicked 9.5 (Bit accurate at least) and has averaged 14 disposals and 4.5 marks per game. I would like to see him tackle a bit more, only averaging 1.5 tackles per game so far when he has averaged around three per game in his past three seasons at Richmond.
Richmond – Tom Lynch
The boom recruit at Richmond has been outstanding so far this year, kicking 17.8 and is currently second behind Jeremy Cameron in the Coleman Medal. In the absence of Jack Riewoldt, he has filled in for him seamlessly and will be the biggest threat up forward for Richmond. As to who gets the match up on him at the moment, you'd think that Trengove will get the first crack, but I won't be too surprised to see Zaine Cordy go to him at some point in the game. Against the Bulldogs, he's kicked 16.9 in eight games.
Final Verdict – Richmond By 14 Points
I can see this game going one of two ways – both of them are going to result in Richmond wins. The first possibility is a 10 goal win, which might happen if the Dogs aren't switched on from the opening bounce. The second possibility is that the Dogs give it a good effort but their kicking will let them down again. It should come as no surprise to anyone that they are the worst team in front of goals in the AFL – literally last in accuracy.
How do the Dogs win this game? Other than the obvious, they need big games from their midfielders. Jack Macrae's impact on games has been more quiet than usual lately, but remember, he had 43 disposals against the Tigers last time they met, so he could be on for a big one. Keep Josh Dunkley in the middle and if the Bont can fire up as well, it may prove to be a handful for the Tigers here.