It all comes down to this game on Sunday afternoon at Ballarat’s Mars Stadium. It does not get any bigger or simpler than this for the Western Bulldogs: Beat the Adelaide Crows and you can punch your ticket into the Finals.
It’s been a rollercoaster of a 2019 for the Western Bulldogs, they’ve pulled some unbelievable wins, but they have also lost games that they were slated to win, but the past month of footy has seen the red, white and blues put form in the board that suggests they can play finals and go far in September. Add the fact that the recent form of the Crows of late hasn’t been the greatest, there’s every chance the Doggies can add win number 12 on the board.
Following Essendon’s loss to Collingwood on Friday night, the Dogs will jump them on percentage and land in seventh – how lucky – depending on the GWS/Gold Coast game, the Dogs are still in with a chance of getting a home elimination final. But for that to happen, Gold Coast has to beat GWS and then depending on the margin of that game, the Bulldogs have to thump the Crows by a considerable margin – this is wishful thinking.
But let’s just focus on this game for now. The Crows have won the past two games against the Bulldogs by margins of 37 and 59 points. However, Adelaide have only won two of their past eight games against the Bulldogs when they’ve travelled interstate. The Dogs can’t get complacent here. The Crows are playing for a spot for Finals as well – they would have to win by at least four goals to overtake the Bulldogs in the eight.
There’s so much at stake here and I can’t wait to see it.
The Teams
Western Bulldogs
IN: Tim English, Rhylee West OUT: Jackson Trengove (Omitted), Tory Dickson (Hamstring)
B: Taylor Duryea, Lewis Young, Hayden Crozier HB: Jason Johannisen, Zaine Cordy, Easton Wood C: Lachie Hunter, Marcus Bontempelli, Ed Richards HF: Bailey Dale, Josh Schache, Sam Lloyd F: Bailey Smith, Aaron Naughton, Toby McLean FOL: Tim English, Josh Dunkley, Jack Macrae INT: Matt Suckling, Rhylee West, Patrick Lipinski, Will Hayes EMG: Jackson Trengove, Callum Porter, Bailey Williams, Roarke Smith
Two changes to the Bulldogs team that thumped Greater Western Sydney last weekend. Shockingly, Jackson Trengove has been dropped. I say shockingly because I didn’t think he has been playing that horribly to warrant an omission – maybe it’s a structure thing, given that Lewis Young played a cracking game last week. Tory Dickson will miss after a hamstring injury last week ruined his day after starting with two goals in the opening term.
They do welcome back Tim English after he was a late out last week with illness, whilst it is very pleasing to see Rhylee West getting another chance with his first game since his debut game against Fremantle around a month ago.
Adelaide
IN: Hugh Greenwood, Riley Knight, Alex Keath OUT: Kyle Hartigan, Lachlan Murphy, Reilly O’Brien (All Omitted)
B: Rory Laird, Daniel Talia, Luke Brown HB: Brodie Smith, Jake Kelly, Wayne Milera C: Paul Seedsman, Brad Crouch, David Mackay HF: Chayce Jones, Taylor Walker, Tom Lynch F: Eddie Betts, Darcy Fogarty, Richard Douglas FOL: Sam Jacobs, Matt Crouch, Rory Sloane INT: Hugh Greenwood, Riley Knight, Bryce Gibbs, Alex Keath EMG: Andy Otten, Kyle Hartigan, Reilly O’Brien, Lachlan Murphy
Three unforced changes to Adelaide’s line up after they were belted by Collingwood last week. They welcome back Hugh Greenwood, who I believe is in their best 22, but has found himself in and out of the team this year. I also rate Riley Knight as a player, but he has found himself in and out of the side, whilst Alex Keath – who has been a revelation as a player this year – is back in after missing some time with an ankle injury.
Making way for the trio is Kyle Hartigan, Lachlan Murphy and Reilly O’Brien, which is a bit of a shock because he too has been a revelation for the Crows this year in the ruck, but given that Sam Jacobs is also playing decent footy – is there really room for two ruckmen?
Recent History (Past 10 Matches)
Round 9, 2018 – Adelaide Oval: Adelaide 9.9.63 def Western Bulldogs 2.14.26 Round 16, 2017 – Adelaide Oval: Adelaide 16.8.104 def Western Bulldogs 5.15.45 Round 7, 2016 – Docklands: Western Bulldogs 18.15.123 def Adelaide 17.6.108 Elimination Final, 2015 – MCG: Western Bulldogs 14.18.102 def by Adelaide 16.13.109 Round 4, 2015 – Docklands: Western Bulldogs 18.17.125 def Adelaide 10.8.68 Round 6, 2014 – Docklands: Western Bulldogs 12.11.83 def by Adelaide 13.14.92 Round 21, 2013 – Docklands: Western Bulldogs 20.11.131 def Adelaide 17.12.114 Round 4, 2013 – Football Park: Adelaide 12.8.80 def Western Bulldogs 4.4.28 Round 2, 2012 – Football Park: Adelaide 11.16.82 def Western Bulldogs 9.10.64 Round 13, 2011 – Docklands: Western Bulldogs 14.16.100 def Adelaide 10.10.70
Players To Watch
Western Bulldogs – Bailey Dale
Since his return into the lineup, Bailey Dale has played like a man possessed up forward, slotting goals at will and kicking very straight – he has kicked at least one goal in each of his five games since round 18 and all up has kicked 15 goals across his past five weeks, which is very impressive. He has got some history up in Ballarat, kicking four goals against Port Adelaide in the first-ever contest for premiership points at Mars Stadium. He’s been in some ripping touch – will be one to look out for.
Adelaide – Darcy Fogarty
Speaking of someone who has been in ripping touch, Darcy Fogarty has burst out from nowhere. Granted, he was taken as a first-round selection a couple of years ago and his scope for potential is enormous. But he did not get a game for Adelaide until a couple of weeks ago. Since then, he has been in good form, kicking a bag of five against West Coast in Perth and kicking three of Adelaide’s six goals against Collingwood last week. Does Lewis Young get the match up? Would be an exciting battle of the young guns.
Final Verdict – Western Bulldogs By 18 Points
The form up in Ballarat is a little sketchy, with the Bulldogs winning two and losing two. But a win against Brisbane earlier in the year suggests that the Doggies understand the conditions up in Ballarat a fair bit better. Having said that, Adelaide still have plenty to play for and will be bringing their A game – you’d think that anyway. But given how up and down they’ve been over the past 24 months, who knows?
I expect the Bulldogs to get it done however, they know the opportunity is in their hands and they have been playing well enough to earn that last spot in the top eight. It should be tight, it should be close it should be a thrilling encounter and hopefully the sold-out crowd in Ballarat are treated to a beauty of a contest, hopefully with the right end result.