This week, I’d thought I would try something a little different for this week's match preview and review.
With both the Western Bulldogs and Essendon facing each other this week in a massive game, I thought I’d call in a good mate of mine, who is also an aspiring journalist and just happens to co-host a Football podcast with me. Alex Catalano has been a diehard Essendon fan from day dot and brings to the table a good wealth of knowledge on the game of Aussie Rules.
To capture the thoughts, emotions and Brett Kirk-style energies of both the Bulldogs and the Bombers, I thought we’d do this collaboration. I will be talking from the perspective of the Doggies (naturally), whilst Cat will be writing about his Bombers.
Below is what we have both come up with from our respective sides.
Recent Form Line
Western Bulldogs: Well three from the last four games will indicate that it’s been a good month of footy. But Sunday’s loss to Carlton shows that there is still a bit of work to do when we’re put under pressure. Carlton were harder at the contest for longer and adapted to the conditions quicker than the Dogs did. I’m not sure what the conditions will be like on Friday night, but given that Essendon have spent as much time as the Bulldogs have up North, that won’t be seen as an excuse.
Mark Robinson said it best in his weekly column on Monday's Herald Sun: The Doggies are too hit and miss at the moment. Their best is amazing to watch, but their worst has been absolutely frustrating.
Essendon: Coming into this Friday night clash, Essendon are the notably more in-form side. The Dons sit 4th on the ladder currently, with 4 wins and a loss. While none of the wins have been by more than 15 points, the past two weeks have demonstrated that the Bombers have the ability to play a high pressure, tackling game style, out-tackling North 66-53 (while having more disposals) and Collingwood 65-50. The Bombers sit first for average tackles in the league with 59 per game, ahead of the Lions at 57.5 and the Swans at 55.3.
Last Time We Met
Western Bulldogs: I know Cat dreads this, but I absolutely love going back to this game. After Essendon kicked the opening goal of the match, the Bulldogs went on to kick the next 21 goals of the match - each one as devastating as the last. The Bombers failed to kick another goal until midway through the final quarter. The margin was as high as 117 points, but some late goals from Essendon whittled it back down to 104 points by the final siren - the first time since 2006 that the Bulldogs won by a triple-figure margin.
Josh Dunkley and Jack Macrae were at their destructive best in the middle, whilst Marcus Bontempelli was also sublime. Toby McLean played his best game as a half-forward/midfield type, whilst Tim English had the measure of Zac Clarke around the ground. There were winners really everywhere you looked. McLean, Tory Dickson, Josh Schache and Bailey Dale all kicked three goals a piece and the defence, led by the likes of Taylor Duryea and Hayden Crozier did their job with aplomb.
Essendon: From an Essendon perspective, remembering the last time the Dons and the Dogs met is something that is usually met with cold sweats, screaming, and an unfortunate amount of alcohol.
After what had been a gusty run home to try and secure a finals spot, a demoralising 59-point loss to Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium the week before made the 104-point thrashing at the hands of the Bulldogs even more crushing.
There weren’t many positives to take from the game other than the continued strong performances of the younger players including Kyle Langford, Andrew McGrath and Mason Redman. The Bulldogs forward line was basically allowed to run rampant, with Bailey Dale, Josh Schache, Tory Dickson and Toby McLean kicking bags of three each.
Team Change Predictions
Western Bulldogs: IN: Hayden Crozier, Cody Weightman OUT: Louis Butler, Josh Schache
There are two certainties. The first will be Hayden Crozier who is back after serving his one-match suspension for a sling tackle. The Dogs critically missed him on Sunday night, the way he controls the air, provides a very solid intercept mark and can drive out of defence when required - he is such an important player in this team and criminally underrated. Louis Butler was brought in as his replacement and you’d probably say he’d be the one who will make way. He’s only two games into his AFL career, but he’s got a future. He already knows how to find the footy and has proven himself as a decent intercept defender.
The other is Cody Weightman, the Dogs' first pick in last year's Draft. Weightman is a small forward that's great out on the lead and strong hands and will certainly provide some pressure up forward, which was what the Dogs sorely lacked. If the Dogs are going smaller, then it will make sense to drop Josh Schache, who was virtually unsighted on Sunday night. Should Beveridge go like for like, then it might be someone like Bailey Dale, who has been in very lean form all season. It's a tough one, but I think it'll be Schache who gets the chop.
Essendon: IN: Dylan Clarke, Aaron Francis/Mason Redman
OUT: Dylan Shiel, Conor McKenna
With Shiel out on suspension, Dylan Clarke would be my preferred in to tag one of the Dogs’ influential midfielders out of the game to let McGrath, Parish and Merrett have a greater impact. McKenna has a finger issue, and if Francis is deemed to make the backline too tall, Redman is another option to replace him.
Our Own Players In Form
Western Bulldogs: Bailey Smith has been one of the more consistent standouts for the Bulldogs this year. Whilst most of the debate has been about Rozee or Walsh as the best kid out of the 2018 AFL Draft, Smith is piecing together strong claims of his own in 2020. Not counting the North game, where he got knocked out early, Smith is averaging 23 disposals, 4.6 tackles, 3.4 clearances and 2.6 inside 50s per game.
He could very well be leading the Charles Sutton Medal after six games, but Jack Macrae is starting to hit some form over the past month, averaging 24.2 disposals, 4.5 inside 50s and 3.7 clearances per game across the last month. Alex Keath has been in fine touch and looks poised to take advantage of a small Essendon forward line - unless they’re prepared to send Cale Hooker up forward. Whilst Laitham Vandermeer played his best game for the club in just his fifth game and should look to build on that momentum.
Essendon: The Dogs will have their hands full with players to look out for. In the midfield group, Andy McGrath is coming off a 25 possession, 8 tackle game, which including 4 inside 50s and 6 intercept possessions. McGrath has averaged 22 disposals and 6 tackles for the year. While Parish hasn’t had as much time in the midfield group as most Dons fans would prefer, his 21 possessions, 6 tackles, 7 inside 50s and 7 clearances should put him on Beveridge’s radar.
The backline has been the consistent backbone of the Dons, with Jordan Ridley averaging 17 disposals at an 87% efficiency, 7 marks, 4 rebound 50s and 5 intercept possessions. Adam Saad has been just as dangerous, averaging 20 disposals at 80% efficiency, 6 intercept possessions, 3 inside 50s, 4 rebound 50s and 391 metres gained. The tackling pressure of Will Snelling will be an important focus for the Dogs mids and half back line.
Opposition To Look Out For
Western Bulldogs: With Dylan Shiel now out for the next fortnight, having failed to have his suspension cleared by the tribunal, there’s going to be some extra pressure on Andrew McGrath to stand up in the middle. He was the number one pick back in the 2016 Draft, but he’s been building his game up very nicely, playing more midfield across the last 18 months. This year, he’s averaged career-highs in tackles and clearances, whilst putting in 22 disposals per game. The midfield will be without Shiel or captain Dyson Heppell, but they still have the class of Zach Merrett and the grunt of Devon Smith also spearheading Essendon’s on-ball brigade.
With Jake Stringer out for the foreseeable future with injury, there will also be extra pressure from the forwards to deliver. Watch out for the likes of Jacob Townsend, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Jayden Laverde to provide avenues to goal. They are all momentum players and given time and space, will make the Bulldogs pay. Also making sure Adam Saad doesn’t get to run around Metricon Stadium with the ball in his hands unmarked, the same way Kade Simpson did with Carlton on Sunday night would also go a long way in curtailing Essendon’s game.
Essendon: The Dogs lacklustre performance against the Blues last week should give Worsfold and Rutten no reason to act complacent coming into this game. Bailey Smith, Lachie Hunter and Jack Macrae all played excellently, racking up 79 disposals and 15 tackles between them, with Smith hitting the scoreboard as well.
Marcus Bontempelli is the first man who comes to mind when you think Bulldogs. Another 22 disposals, 6 tackles and a goal was added to his tally last week, along with 5 clearances and 3 inside 50s. Dylan Clarke would be a handy player to come in this week, either to tag Macrae on the inside to prevent his impact on ball, or on Bontempelli to take their undeniably most impactful player out of the contest. Hurley and Hooker will have to be on their toes against the tall timber of Bruce and Schache, but after an inspiring defensive performance last week, faith would be in them to keep it up.
What Can We Expect?
Western Bulldogs: I have no idea what to expect. I’d like to imagine that the Dons will put in a much better game against the Dogs this time. But the number of players from their best 22 missing is starting to mount: Stringer, Shiel, Heppell, Conor McKenna, Joe Daniher, Tom Cutler are all players who should be in Essendon’s 22. Despite this, the Bombers have only lost one game this year and that was by a point to the team that belted the Bulldogs last Sunday.
I’d also like to expect that the Bulldogs would have had a reality check come Monday morning. The last quarter was pretty much lifeless and Luke Beveridge knows the team is so much better than that. I expect the Essendon midfield, whilst not at 100 percent, to still give the Bulldogs’ mids a rattle and a fight. The Bulldogs pride themselves on being a high-possession team, and if the Bombers want to be noticed as a legit side this year, they would’ve taken notes of how Carlton pressured and harassed them both when they had the ball and set themselves up defensively.
Essendon are first in the competition for tackles per game, sixth in the competition for clearances per game, ninth in the league for contested possessions per game. That was pretty much the blueprint of the Carlton game, they dominated clearances early and they tackled and pressured and harassed the Dogs into submission. If they can apply the same defensive tactics, then this is a game that they will win.
The Bulldogs have history on their side, Essendon have not beaten the Bulldogs since 2014, meaning Luke Beveridge has not lost against the Bombers. But the thing about records like that are that they are eventually meant to be broken. Will it be broken on Friday night? There’s every chance that it will be, but I feel the need to back my mob in this week and bounce back, they would’ve learned a bit from Sunday night.
My Tip: Bulldogs by 15 points.
Essendon: The midfield battle won’t be as easy for the Dons as it has been against the undermanned engine rooms of Collingwood and North Melbourne, but the lack of Dunkley in and under makes me optimistic. Tom Liberatore also hasn’t quite found his renowned tackling prowess in 2020, so even without Shiel they should put up a fight in the middle. Phillips will contest well with English in the ruck, and should do well to limit his influence around the ground as he did against Grundy.
For the first time, only having one tall forward option might prove to be a blessing in disguise against the undersized Dogs’ defence. Francis could find himself forward if he is brought back into the side, while Smith, Snelling and Parish should be rotated through to compete with the smalls at ground level. With no Stringer, the pressure will be on Townsend to lift the forwards around him, while having to do battle with the likes of Easton Wood or Zaine Cordy. Keath may have to take on McKernan due to sheer size.
The match ups in the Dons backline will be key, after how well the Dogs forwards performed last time they met. We already touched on Hooker and Hurley, but a close eye will have to be kept on Vandermeer and Dale, which may require one of Ridley or Gleeson to play a more one-on-one role. Fantasia running with Vandermeer could prove fruitful.
For a tip, I’d go with Essendon by 13 points. While they’re not the most traditionally structured side, Worsfold and Rutten would have hopefully taken plenty of notes from last year’s clash to prevent a similar result.
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